Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 中国旱涝格局演变规律及其对水资源分布的可能影响研究 | |
| 其他题名 | Dryness/wetness pattern and its possible impact on water resources in China |
| 翟建青 | |
| 出版年 | 2009 |
| 学位类型 | 博士 |
| 导师 | 姜彤 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所 |
| 中文摘要 | 本文根据国家气象局信息中心提供的483个气象站的气温和降水数据及德国波茨坦气候影响研究所提供的中国土壤持水力数据将中国分成十大流域来计算其PDSI及SPI旱涝指数，在此基础上分析1961-2005年十大流域旱涝演变规律，并分析了旱涝指数同径流量之间的相互关系；同时利用德国马普气象研究所提供的ECHAM5/MPI-OM模式输出的2001-2050年降水量月数据，计算未来三种情景下（SRES-A2，高排放情景；SRES-A1B，中等排放情景和SRES-B1，低排放情景）SPI旱涝指数，并据此分析了未来50年中国十大流域旱涝趋势及未来水资源分布的可能变化。得出主要结论如下：\n（1）1961-2005年来，中国存在一条东北-西南向的干旱趋势带，主要包括松花江流域、辽河流域、海河流域、黄河流域、长江流域中部及珠江流域和西南诸河流域一部；同期西北内陆河流域则有显著的湿润化趋势。15年时间尺度的旱涝发生频率统计结果显示，北方流域如松花江流域、辽河流域、海河流域和黄河流域干旱灾害发生频率有增加趋势；西北内陆河流域湿润年发生频率有明显上升趋势。流域平均旱涝趋势分析则表明，辽河流域、海河流域和黄河流域呈现明显的干旱化趋势，西北内陆河流域为显著湿润化趋势。\n（2）选取八个流域中8个主要水文控制站，分析其年径流量与集水面积内平均旱涝指数相关关系。结果显示，旱涝指数同径流量之间的相关性良好，旱涝指数的年际变化和年径流量的年际变化有很好的一致性。由此可见，旱涝指数可以作为分析水资源年际变化的一个参考指标。需要注意的是，地处北方的辽河流域及海河流域由于人类活动的干扰剧烈，导致旱涝指数同径流量的相关性降低。\n（3）未来三种情景下旱涝演变规律各不相同。A2情景下，总体上仍然延续过去45年来的旱涝格局，即存在一条东北-西南向的干旱趋势带，具体地域范围同过去45年干旱区域有所变化；全国干旱面积占国土面积比例在A2情景下有增加趋势；从旱涝频率的年代际变化来看，辽河流域、海河流域和黄河流域干旱频率呈增加趋势。A1B情景下，总体旱涝格局发生变化，全国湿润化区域扩大，但达到显著性水平的区域仅包括黄河流域南部，长江流域的汉江流域、嘉陵江流域、岷沱江流域和金沙江流域东部，珠江流域以及西北内陆河流域一部；干旱化趋势通过显著性检验的区域则集中在青藏高原地区；全国干旱灾害面积比例随时间出现下降趋势；旱涝频率年代际变化结果显示松花江流域、西南诸河流域干旱频率有增加趋势；而频率明显减小的流域包括长江流域、珠江流域及东南诸河流域；流域平均旱涝趋势表明黄河流域、淮河、长江和珠江流域湿润趋势显著。B1情景下，总体旱涝格局在我国东部地区呈现出“北涝南旱”的特征，湿润化趋势显著的区域集中在海河、黄河及淮河三大流域交界地区和松花江流域北部，干旱化趋势显著区域仍然为青藏高原地区；全国干旱灾害发生面积占全国总面积的比例随时间呈下降趋势；旱涝频率统计结果显示干旱频率明显增加的有珠江流域和西北内陆河流域，干旱频率明显下降的则只有西南诸河流域；流域平均旱涝趋势研究显示松花江流域、海河流域、淮河流域湿润化趋势显著。 |
| 英文摘要 | Time series of the average annual Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were calculated for 483 meteorological stations in China using monthly observed data from 1961 to 2005, then rules of dryness/wetness are analyzed for ten large regions covering the whole territory of China represented by seven large river basins and three areas in the southeast, southwest and northwest combining several river basins; In addition, the relationships between the two indices and the Percentage of Runoff Anomaly (PRA) in eight large rivers representing eight of the ten regions were investigated. In addition, this study detects future changes of dryness/wetness in China during the first 50 years of the 21st century according to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which is calculated by monthly precipitation data derived from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Three anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission scenarios SRES-A2, SRES-A1B and SRES-B1 have been considered. The primary conclusions can be seen as following:\n\tThere is one belt with dry trend including the Songhuajiang river basin, the Liaohe river basin, the Haihe river basin, the Yellow river basin, the central of the Yangtze river basin, the Pearl river basin and some areas in the Southwest river basins during 1961-2005; and a wet trend is existed in the Northwest Inland river basins in the same time. The frequency of drought has an increased trend in the Songhuajiang river basin, the Liaohe river basin, the Haihe river basin and the Yellow river basin while it is a same trend about the frequency of wetness in the Northwest Inland river basins. According to the basin averaged PDSI and SPI, it have an obvious dry trend in the Liaohe river basin, the Haihe river basin and the Yellow river basin but wet trend in the Northwest Inland river basins.\n\tAnalysing the correlativity between the runoff and indices of drought in eight river basins, the results show that it is a good positive relations between them while the relations is bad in the Liaohe river basin and the Haihe river basin which maybe because of the serious humanbeing effect on runoff. Even if, the indices of dryness/wetness is a good indication about the runoff.\n\tThere are different rules about dryness/wetness in three scenarios. \nThe pattern is same as the situation in the past 45 years in scenario A2. A dry belt always exists from Northeast to Southwest of China although the bound maybe have a little different. The proportions of drought lands have an upward trend. The frequency of drought is more frequent in these river basins such as the Liaohe river basin, the Haihe river basin and the Yellow river basin.\nIn scenario A1B, many part of China represent a wet trend but only these area reach the distinct level such as the south of the Yellow river basin, the Hanjiang river basin, the Jialingjiang river basin, the Mintuojiang river basin and the eastern of Jinshajiang river basin, the Pearl river basin and some area of the Northwest Inland river basins; Obviously, a area with dry trend locates the south of the Northwest Inland river basins. There is a negative trend about the proportion of drought area. The frequency of drought represents an positive trend in the Songhuajiang river basin and the Southwest river basins while an negative trend in the Yangtze river basin, the Pearl river basin and Southeast river basins; There is an obvious wet trend in the Yellow river basin, the Yangtze river basin and the Pearl river basin based on the basins averaged indices.\nIn scenario B1, there is a wet trend in the north of China and a dry trend in the south of China when we only consider the eastern of China. The area with a obvious dry trend are locate in the northern of the Songhuajiang river basin, the Haihe river basin, the Yellow river basin and the Huaihe river basin while an obvious dry trend is in the northern of the Northwest Inland river basins. The area which is drought has a negative trend. According to the basin averaged indices of drought, the frequency of drought is increasing in the Pearl river basin and the Northwest Inland river basins while decreasing in the Southeast river basins; the frequency of wetness is increasing obviously in the Songhuajiang river basin, Haihe river basin and Huaihe river basin. |
| 中文关键词 | PDSI ; SPI ; 旱涝格局 ; 水资源 ; 情景预估 ; 十大流域 |
| 英文关键词 | PDSI SPI Patterns of Dryness/wetness Water resources Scenario estimation the ten large river basins |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 自然地理学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/286775 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 翟建青. 中国旱涝格局演变规律及其对水资源分布的可能影响研究[D]. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,2009. |
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