Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 气候变化对石羊河流域生态系统的影响评估 | |
| 其他题名 | Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Ecosystems in Shiyang River Region |
| 孙兰东 | |
| 出版年 | 2009 |
| 学位类型 | 博士 |
| 导师 | 程国栋 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所 |
| 中文摘要 | 本文全面、系统地分析了近半个世纪以来，西北干旱区内陆河--石羊河流域在全球变暖大背景下的气候变化特征；针对流域生态经济系统的特点，提出了西北干旱区内陆河流域气候变化脆弱性和适应性对策综合评估的框架，研究了石羊河流域生态经济系统气候变化下脆弱性和适应性对策评价的指标体系，分析了未来气候变化下石羊河流域生态经济系统的脆弱性，提出了一系列适应性对策。本论文得到以下主要结论：\n（1）石羊河流域是我国气候变化的敏感区，近半个世纪来，气温升高，降水略有增加。\n石羊河流域年及各季平均气温升高的趋势与全国一致，但增温幅度更大、对全球气候变暖的响应更加显著。其中以冬季增温贡献最大，秋季次之，夏季最小，从20世纪80年代中后期开始，石羊河流域的增温速率有加大趋势，并有以冷季增暖为主向全年性增暖转变的迹象。石羊河流域近地面气候变暖主要是平均最低气温明显上升的结果,冬季平均最低气温的增加对年平均最低气温的上升贡献最大。尽管最高气温的升温速率小于最低气温的升温速率，但年最高气温的显著升高无疑对石羊河流域气候变暖起到了推波助澜的作用，尤以冬、秋为甚，使得该流域气候变暖的幅度和速率远高于全国和全省平均水平，成为我国气候变暖极其敏感的地区之一。流域年降水空间分布不均，上游多，中游次之，下游最少。近半个世纪来流域年平均年降水量为210.7mm，略呈增加趋势，增加幅度19.2mm。其中，流域中游盆地年降水量增加明显，上、下游年降水变化不明显，降水增加趋势从西北向东南逐渐递减，流域西南部降水略呈减少趋势，但不显著。由于流域降水基数小，绝对增加量有限，因此中游降水的增加趋势对改善流域水资源供需矛盾的贡献不大。\n（2）石羊河径流量下降，地下水位下降，植被面积减少，裸地增加。\n石羊河近几十年来其年径流量也呈较显著减少的趋势，表现在出山口、南营水库入库径流量和红崖山水库入库径流量的减少，尤其是20世纪90年代，下降趋势更为显著，21世纪后径流量有所回升。近20年来，由于流域地下水补给量的减少及开采量的增加，地下水位呈持续下降趋势，水位埋深普遍下降5～16米。1997～2007年间，植被总面积整体上呈现持续减少趋势，裸地面积则呈增加趋势，稀疏植被和茂密植被也呈快速减少趋势。\n（3）21世纪甘肃省和石羊河流域气温上升，降水增加。\n未来的21世纪，甘肃省的气温和降水都呈现出上升的态势，其中温度的上升趋势十分明显。相对于1961～1990年30年的气候平均值来说，2001～2100的100年间，预计甘肃省平均气温增温幅度在0.97～5.35℃之间；降水增加幅度在-0.93～15.36%之间。未来50年，石羊河流域的气温和降水总体上有所增加，21 世纪中期，石羊河流域可能变湿。\n（4）石羊河流域的生态环境现状异常脆弱，但在流域的不同地方，其脆弱度有所不同。生态环境最脆弱的是流域下游。流域生态系统气候脆弱性从重到轻的排列为：民勤、凉州区、金川区、永昌和古浪。与现状相比，在未来气候变化情景的假设下，未来50年，石羊河流域下游民勤的生态环境依然十分脆弱，其次是凉州区和金川区，生态系统也很脆弱。相对而言，石羊河流域中永昌和古浪的气候脆弱性较小。在考虑气候变化因素和社会经济发展的双重影响下，与2001年相比，石羊河流域5个县（区）2010年和2020年生态系统的气候敏感度有所增加，适应能力有所增强；永昌县表现为较脆弱；凉州区表现为最脆弱；民勤县生态系统的气候脆弱性依然是石羊河流域5个县（区）中最脆弱的县；古浪县2010年的生态系统的气候脆弱性相比2001年有所增加，但是2020年的生态系统的气候脆弱性相比2001年有所减小，说明2010年表2001年脆弱，但2020年要比2001年好，表现为较脆弱；金川区表现为较脆弱。\n（5）开发空中水资源，积极开展祁连山人工增雨雪的研究，增加水库蓄水和冰川储量，缓解该地区的水资源短缺局面；节流-退耕、农业结构调整、节水技术齐头并进；实施水资源优化配置,保证生态用水；控制和分流人口，减缓人口压力和环境承载力。\n（6）生态系统对气候变化的响应研究是一项复杂的系统工程，在脆弱性评价指标的选取上，有一定的主观随意性，也就给评价结果的可靠性带来一定的影响。 |
| 英文摘要 | In this paper, a comprehensive, systematic analysis of the features of climatic change in the context of global warming in the arid inland Northwest-Shiyang River Basin for nearly half a century has been done. Based on the characteristics of eco-economic system, we put forward the comprehensive response framework of climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessment in the northwest arid inland basin. This paper build climate change vulnerability and adaptation response evaluation index system of the eco-economic system in Shiyang River Basin, and analyzed the ecological fragility of the economic system in the future when climate change in the Shiyang River Basin, and put forward a series of adaptive response strategy.\nThe research main results are:\n (1) Shiyang River Basin is the sensitive areas to climate change in China. The temperature has been increased obviously, and precipitation has increased slightly.\nThe rising trend of the average yearly temperature and temperature in every season in Shiyang River Basin are the same with that of in China, but it increased more quickly, and has more obviously responses to global warming. The increasing temperature in winter contributes the most warming, followed by the fall, the smallest is the summer. From the 1980s, the increasing speed of temperature in the Shiyang River Basin become quicker, and showed the phenomenon which the temperature change from cold to warm. The main warming reason in Shiyang River Basin is the obviously rising minimum temperature, and the average minimum temperature in winter rising is the greatest contribution to the warming. Although the warming speed of maximum temperature is less than that of the minimum temperature , the increasing maximum temperature play the significant role in the warming in Shiyang River Basin, especially in winter and in autumn. It makes the temperature rising rate and speed are more higher than that of in China and Gansu Province. Shiyang River Basin is the extremely sensitive area to climate change in the China.\nThe distribution of precipitation in space is uneven in Shiyang River Basin. The upper reaches has the most precipitation, followed by the middle reaches, the lower reaches has the least precipitation. Nearly half a century, the average annual rainfall is 210.7mm in watershed. The yearly rainfall increased slightly, the rising rainfall is 19.2mm. The annual precipitation increased significantly in the middle reaches of the watershed basin, The annual precipitation increased slightly in the lower reaches. The increasing trend of precipitation has been reduced from the northwest to the southeast gradually, but it is not significantly. As the precipitation small base, an absolute increase in the volume limited, so the precipitation in the middle reaches of the river basin has been an upward trend in improving water supply and demand do not contribute to the conflict.\n(2)The runoff of Shiyang River decline, ground water level dropped, the area of vegetation reduced, and bare earth increased. \nThe runoff in Shiyang River decreased in recent decades. The runoff Jiutiaoling, Nanying Reservoir and Hongyashan Reservoir are decreased obviously, especially in 1990s. The runoff became more in 21st century. Over the past 20 years, because of recharge the groundwater basin to reduce production and increase the water table, the level of ground water were decreasing 5～16 meters. From 1997 to 2007, the total area of vegetation has continued to decline, but the area of bare land is on the rise, sparse vegetation and dense vegetation also showed rapid decline.\n(3)Gansu province and Shiyang river region will become more warmer and wetter in 21st century.\nIn the 21st century, the temperature and precipitation has emerged rising trend in Gansu Province, and the upward trend in temperature is very clear. Comparing with the climatic average between 1961 and 2000, the rate of temperature may be in 0.97～5.35℃; the rate of precipitation may be in -0.93～15.36% in the 100 years from 2001 to 2100.The temperature and precipitation will increase in the future 50 years. In the middle of 21st century, Shiyang river region may become more wetter.\n(4)The ecological environment of Shiyang River Basin is very vulnerable, but in different parts of the basin, its vulnerability is different. \nThe most vulnerable districts is in the lower reaches of the river basin.From the heavy vulnerability to less vulnerable is: Minqin, Liangzhou district, Jinchuan District, Yongchang and Gulang.Compared with the status quo, in the context of future climate change scenarios , the lower reaches of Shiyang River Basin- Minqin's ecological environment is still very vulnerable, followed by Liangzhou District and Jinchuan District.In comparison, Yongchang and Gulang are less vulnerable to climate change in Shiyang River Basin. In considering the dual effect of climate change and socio-economic development, comparing with 2001, the sensitivity to climate in Shiyang river region will become more sensitive in 2010 and 2020, the ability to adapt to climate will increase. The vulnerability of ecosystem in Yongchang County is less vulnerable. That of in Liangzhou district is the most vulnerable. Minqin is the most vulnerable county to climate change in Shiyang river region. Gulang County will become more vulnerable in 2010 than that of in 2001, but it is less vulnerable in 2020 than that of in 2001. Jinchuang district is less vulnerable to climate change.\n (5) Development of water resources in the air, active research of artificial rain and snow in Qilian Mountains, increasing glaciers and water storage, these strategies are used for dealing the water shortage situation in this region. We should take some strategies, such as cut- farming, agriculture structural adjustment, water-saving techniques. the implementation of water resources optimization Configuration to ensure the ecological water; control and diversion of the population, slowing population pressure and environmental bearing capacity.\n(6)The response of ecosystem to climate change research is a complicated systems engineering. There is a certain degree of subjective arbitrary when we choose vulnerability assessment index, and they may be influence the vulnerability assessment result reliability. |
| 中文关键词 | 石羊河流域 ; 气候变化 ; 生态环境 ; 脆弱性 ; 适应性 |
| 英文关键词 | Shiyang River Region climate change ecosystem vulnerability adaptation ability |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 人文地理学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/286726 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 孙兰东. 气候变化对石羊河流域生态系统的影响评估[D]. 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,2009. |
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