Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 科其喀尔巴西冰川流域径流估算方法探索 | |
| 其他题名 | Daily Glacier Runoff Estimation Methods on the Glacier Keqicarbaqi |
| 卿文武 | |
| 出版年 | 2008 |
| 学位类型 | 硕士 |
| 导师 | 陈仁升 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所 |
| 中文摘要 | 冰川是天然的固体水库，是我国西北内陆干旱区稳定的补给来源，是我国冰川积雪－绿洲景观核心部分。近一百多年来，全球波动性变暖，我国西部山地冰川都出现不同程度萎缩现象，在此种趋势下探讨本区冰川对气候的响应以及水资源的可能变化已经成为我们当前迫切的任务之一。\n本论文利用科其喀尔巴西冰川各种野外观测数据，对影响科其喀尔巴西冰川径流的各种下垫面和气象因素进行了初步分析，以60m×60m的DEM为空间分辨率，1d为时间分辨率，初步构建了7个基于气温、降水和总辐射的概念性分布式参数模型，对科其喀尔巴西冰川融水径流进行了模拟；利用能量平衡原理，较好的模拟了不同海拔梯度的冰川消融过程（花杆资料），在此基础上，构建了3个基于物理机制的半分布式能量平衡模型，初步得到以下几点结论：\n一、气温作为辐射平衡、湍流交换热的间接指标，在所有影响冰川融水径流的气象因子中，其与流量的相关性最为显著，其次是总（净）辐射－流量关系。在日降水量较小的情况下，降水量和径流基本没有统计关系。但当发生暴雨过程时，降水过程对于冰川末端流量也有很大的贡献。此外，下垫面因素（表碛和热溶喀斯特地貌）对冰川消融影响不容忽视。\n二、在日尺度上，以气温和总辐射为基本驱动数据，初步构建了7个简单的分布式冰川径流模型，并应用效率系数NSE和平衡误差B作为模型结果的评价标准，从模拟效果来看，在所有方案中，分布式气温指数＋降水径流模型在本区模拟效果最好（NSE=0.77，B=－5.2％），其次为分布气温指数＋总辐射指数＋降水径流模型（NSE=0.76，B=－20.0％）。\n三、即使在科其喀尔巴西这样的大型冰川流域（冰川覆盖71％），降水观测仍然极为重要（我国多数监测冰川没有观测降水量），因为降水直接与雪－洪和雨－洪过程相关；FY-2C降水资料需要同化以后再进行应用。\n四、分别应用两个自动气象站（高山气象站和冰面气象站）资料作为模型输入变量，对花杆消融进行模拟计算，从模拟结果来看，单点消融模拟误差随格点距自动气象站距离的增大而逐渐加大，而自动气象站附近格点模拟误差相对较小。冰面自动气象站附近的花杆3738消融模拟结果表明（绝对误差1 mm w.e./day，相对误差4％）：科其喀尔巴西冰川3750m附近2004年消融期日平均消融量为26.1mm w.e./day， 7月为最强的消融月份，平均消融量达36.6 mm w.e./day，8月次之，消融量为29.7 mm w.e./day，9月消融量最小（13.4mm w.e./day）。冰川表面热量平衡主要来源为净辐射和感热收入，分别占能量平衡总收入的66.4%和30.4%，能量平衡的支出项主要为融化热和蒸发耗热，分别占能量平衡总支出的72.7%和25.4%。\n五、在单点能量平衡基础上，设计了3个半分布式物理模型对冰川融水径流进行模拟估算，从模拟结果来看，3种方案的模拟结果和形式大体上都差不多，在一定程度上反映出了科其喀尔巴西冰川在消融期的日流量变化过程（效率系数NSE分别为0.30，0.35和0.46），但从8月份至9月末，3种方案模拟计算的净流量与实测径流量无论在趋势变化上，还是数值上，均十分接近（NSE分别为0.81、0.48和0.84）。消融期间，无论是液态降水还是固态积雪对本区出口断面径流量的贡献率都比较小。\n\n关键词：科其喀尔巴西冰川；径流估算方法；概念性分布式参数模型；能量平衡模型 |
| 英文摘要 | Glacier is the natural reservoir of solid water, which is stable supply source of water in the arid areas and core part of glacier-oasis landscape in of the northwest China. There are different degrees of shrinkage of mountain glaciers in western China because of Globe warming from 100 years ago. Under this trend, exploring how the glacier response to climate and water resources changing has become one of our current urgent task.\nThe paper firstly use field observation data to analyses the factors which influence glacier ablation such as surface and meteorological factors. Seven simple conceptual distributed glacier hydrological runoff model and three semi-distributed physical glacier runoff model which take the 60 m × 60m DEM as the spatial resolution and 1d as the time resolution are constructed to Simulate the glacer melt-runoff. Some conclusion can be drawn from this study, which include:\n1) Temperatures, as indirect indicators of the radiation balance and the turbulence exchange, has the most obvious correlation coefficient with the glacier melt-runoff in all Meteorological factors which influences the glacier melt-runoff, the secondary is total (net) radiation – discharge. Under the condition of the smaller daily Precipitation, Precipitation and runoff have little statistics relations, however, when a rainstorm break out, precipitation process play A great contribution to glacier melt-water runoff. In addition, the influence of the underlying surface such as Glacier moraine Can not be neglected.\n2) Using the temperature and radiation as the basic data-driven, we design seven simple conceptual distributed glacier hydrological runoff model on the daily scales, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and balance error (B) are used as the evaluation criteria. From the rustles the Distributed temperature index + Rainfall runoff model get the best Results with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) is 0.77 and balance error(B) is -5.2% on the basis of analog results in all program. The secondary is the distributed temperature index + the total radiation index + rainfall runoff model with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) is 0.76 and balance error(B) is -20.03%.\n3) Precipitation monitoring is extremely important in Large Glacier Basin Such as glacier Keqicarbaqi, because of precipitation has directly a relationship to the snow - flood and rain -flood process. However, the majority of our glaciers have no Precipitation monitoring. \n4) Data from two automatic weather stations（alpine weather station and ice surface weather station）were used respectively as model input variables to do simulation calculation for the ablation of stake lines. The results showed that, simulation error of single point ablation was increased gradually along with the increasing of altitude distance between the lattice and automatic weather station. The simulation result of stake 3738, which close to ice surface weather station, showed that the gross abation near Glacier Keqicarbaqi at 3750m in the year of 2004 was 26.1mm w. e./day, July was the strongest month with 36.6 mm w. e./day, August took second place with 29.7 mm w. e./day and September was the feeblest one, whose gross abation was （mm w. e./day).\n5) On the basis of the single point energy balance, Papers designed three kinds of semi-distributed physical glacier runoff model, which is used to simulated the glacier melt-runoff. These semi-distributed physical glacier runoff model are almost all the same form the simulation results to the simulation form. To a certain extent, the simulation results reflected glacier Keqicarbaqi’s melt-runoff process in the ablation. In particular, from August to the end of September, the result of three kinds of semi-distributed physical glacier runoff model show that Calculated glaciers melt-runoff are almost the same as the measured glaciers melt-runoff. In the ablation period, both the solid-precipitation and the liquid-precipitation play a small contribution rate to the cross-section runoff.\n\nKey words: Glacier Keqicarbaqi;Runoff Estimation Methods;Conceptual Distributed Glacier Hydrological Model;Energy Balance Model |
| 中文关键词 | 科其喀尔巴西冰川 ; 径流估算方法 ; 概念性分布式参数模型 ; 能量平衡模型 |
| 英文关键词 | Glacier Keqicarbaqi Runoff Estimation Methods Conceptual Distributed Glacier Hydrological Model Ener |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 自然地理学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/286647 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 卿文武. 科其喀尔巴西冰川流域径流估算方法探索[D]. 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,2008. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
| 个性服务 |
| 推荐该条目 |
| 保存到收藏夹 |
| 导出为Endnote文件 |
| 谷歌学术 |
| 谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
| [卿文武]的文章 |
| 百度学术 |
| 百度学术中相似的文章 |
| [卿文武]的文章 |
| 必应学术 |
| 必应学术中相似的文章 |
| [卿文武]的文章 |
| 相关权益政策 |
| 暂无数据 |
| 收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
