Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 青藏高原植被格局的动态模拟与生态地理区域系统划分 | |
| 其他题名 | Vegetation Distribution Dynamic Modeling and Classfication of Eco-geographical Regional System on the Tibetan Plateau |
| 赵东升 | |
| 出版年 | 2007 |
| 学位类型 | 博士 |
| 导师 | 郑度 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 中文摘要 | 近百年来，全球气候变暖并日趋加剧已是公认的事实，气候变化将会不同程度地影响到全球各地自然生态系统，其结构和功能都可能发生变化。准确地预测气候变化以及未来气候变化对生态系统的可能影响，已经成为国际地圈生物圈计划(IGBP)的主要研究目标。青藏高原以其独特的自然环境及特殊地理位置成为这项研究中最具特色和最富挑战的区域。本研究在对生态系统机理模型——BIOME4改进的基础上，对青藏高原植被分布及其对气候变化的响应，以及生态系统过程和功能等对气候变化的动态响应进行模拟。在根据植被状况模拟的基础上并结合相关生态气候因子，反演了青藏高原生态地理区域的分布，分析气候变化对生态地理区域分布的可能影响。获得主要结论如下：\n 对青藏高原生态气候因子中的最暖月均温、最冷月均温、≥10℃积温及其日数、≥5℃积温、≥0℃积温、降水、可能蒸散和干燥度指数的空间分布情况进行了分析，高原中部地区存在明显的低温中心，而降水分布趋势为由东南向西北减少，可见低温中心与少雨中心并不重合，这奠定了高原植被分布的水热基础。趋势分析表明，最冷月均温上升较为显著，明显大于最暖月均温，≥0℃积温的上升趋势也远大于≥5℃积温和≥10℃积温，表明高原增温主要是在低温区，加之降水也是以增加趋势为主，对于以耐低温植被为主的青藏高原来说其影响可能是具有积极意义的。\n 在气候变化情景下，青藏高原的植被分布将发生较明显的变化。森林分布面积增大，荒漠面积减小，最明显的变化是灌丛和草甸植被向高原西北方向迅速扩张，使低温耐旱高寒草原面积相对缩小，所以认为A2情景下的气候变化趋势是对高原生态环境的发展与改善是有利的。具体情况是：到2080年灌丛面积约增加为18.61%；阔叶林和针叶林的分布面积将分别增加2.16%和4.02%；针阔混交林约增加0.68%；草原面积将减少15.18%，为减少最多的植被类型。高寒植被和荒漠也分别减小约3.24%和5.75%。\n 青藏高原整体NPP值偏低，分布趋势是东南向西北逐渐减小,与水分分布趋势相同,最低值分布在柴达木盆地区。气候变化情景下，青藏高原NPP的增加主要是在西北部及东部地区，中部地区增加幅度较小。近期，青藏高原NPP以下降趋势为主，增加地区主要集中在北部，西北地区增加最为明显。到中期时，NPP变为以上升为主，总体上升幅度不大。到远期，NPP仍以上升趋势为主，但各区域上升的幅度发生了变化，高原东部地区上升幅度大，下降地区多呈条带状分布，基本上与等高线平行。\n 气候变化情景下生态地理区域也发生了相应的变化。高寒草原地带的南界一直向北收缩，与之相邻的高寒灌丛草甸地带也相应的北进，高山针叶林地带的北界也向北伸进，其北界东段的推进幅度相对较大。其变化结果为：高寒草原地带所占比例将减小，山地荒漠地带面积也减少，其余各地带分布面积均增加，其中山地针叶林地带面积增加最大，山地草原地带面积增加最小。 |
| 英文摘要 | In recent 100 years, global warming and its accumulated effect has become a publicly recognized fact. Climate change can affect various aspects of ecosystem in the world, which results in the change of structure and function within the ecosystem. Forecasting the climate change and its possible influence on the ecosystem accurately has become the main aim of the IGBP.For its unique natural environment and the special geographical position, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau becomes the most characteristic and challenging region in this field.Based on the improved ecosystem model, this paper simulates the response of the vegetation distribution in Qinghai-Tibet Plain and the dynamic response of ecosystem process and function to climate change.Based on the simulation and combined with the correlation eco-climate factors, this paper recurs the eco-geographic region distribution of the Qinghai-Tibet Plain and analyzes the possible influence of climatic change on eco-geographic region distribution. The main conclusions are as follow: \nAccording to the spatial distribution analysis of eco-climatic factors on the Qinghai-Tibet Plain including: mean temperature of the warmest month (TMAX), mean temperture of the coldest month (TMIN), mean temperature and duration with mean daily temperature ≥10℃(TT10, TD10), mean temperature with mean daily temperature ≥5℃(TT5), mean temperature with mean daily temperature ≥0℃(TT0),annual precipitaiton (PRCP), annual potential evapotranspiration (PE), annual aridity index (AI), this study finds that there is an obvious low-temperature center in the middle of the plateau, while the PRCP decreases from southeast to northwest. It can be seen that the low temperature centre and the little rain center don’t overlap with each other, which establishes the water and heat basis for vegetation distribution of the plateau.The trend analysis shows that the increase of the TMIN is remarkable, which is obviously bigger than that of TMAX, and the increasing trend of TT0 is bigger that of TT5 and TT10. The trend shows that the increase of temperature is mainly in low temperature regions and the precipitation mainly takes on an increasing trend, the influence of which is positive to the low temperature bearing vegetation of the plateau. \nUnder the scenario of climatic change, the change of vegetation distribution on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will be obvious. The area of forest would increase while the area of desert would decrease and the most obvious change is that the shrub and meadow would expand rapidly to northwest, which will result in the decrease of the alpine steppe area. Therefore, it can be concluded that under the scenario A2, the climatic change would do goods to the development and melioration of the ecological environment on the plateau.Specifically, to 2080, the area of shrub would increase to 18.61%; the area of broadleave forest and coniferous forest would increase by 2.16% and 4.02% respectively; that of coniferous-broadleave mix forest would approximately increases by 0.68%; while that of shrub would be cut down by15.18%, which would be the most one in reduce; the are of alpine cushion vegetation and desert would decrease by about 3.24% and 5.75%respectively.\nThe general NPP of Qinghai-Tibet Plain is low and the distribution trend of its is gradually decrease form southeast to northwest, which takes the same trend as the precipitation, and the NPP of Qaidam area is the lowest one.Under the climatic change scenario, the increase of NPP on the Qinghai-Tibet Plain would centralize in northwest and east part and the increase of NPP in central part would be very small. In 1991~2020, the NPP of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau would decrease as a whole and the increase of NPP would mainly centralize in north part, in which the increase of northwest would be the most.In 2021~2050, the NPP would increase as a whole, but in general the increase range would not be obvious. In 2051~2080, the NPP would still take an increasing trend, but the increase range of each region would be different. The increase of the east part on the plateau would be most and the distribution of the region in which the NPP would be belt-shaped and parallel with the contour line.\nUnder the climatic change scenario, the eco-geographic region would change correspondingly. The south boundary of alpine steppe zone would contracts to the north and the a conterminous to it would push forward at the same time, while the north boundary of montane coniferous forest zone would contracts to the north too and the east part of it is most obvious. As a result, the are of alpine cold steppe zone and montane desert zone would decrease, while the ares of other zones would increase, in which the increase of montane coniferous forest zone area is most and that of alpine steppe zone is least. |
| 中文关键词 | 生态气候 ; BIOME4模型 ; 气候变化 ; 植被分布 ; 生态地理区域 |
| 英文关键词 | eco-climate BIOME4 climate change vegetation distribution eco-geographic region |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 自然地理学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/286536 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 赵东升. 青藏高原植被格局的动态模拟与生态地理区域系统划分[D]. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2007. |
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