Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 气候变化对内蒙古陆地生态系统初级生产力的可能影响研究 | |
| 其他题名 | Possible Impacts on Primary Production of Terrestrial Ecosystems from Climate Change in Inner Mongolia |
| 赵慧霞 | |
| 出版年 | 2007 |
| 学位类型 | 博士 |
| 导师 | 郑度 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 中文摘要 | 积极探寻气候要素变化与不同尺度生态系统之间的相互作用，揭示气候变化对生态系统的影响已成为近年来全球变化和生态学研究的一个重要领域。内蒙古地处中国北方由湿润、半湿润气候向干旱、半干旱气候的过渡带上，近二十年气候发生了显著变化，同时该地区植被类型丰富，是研究气候变化影响陆地生态系统的典型区域。\n 本文利用基于过程的植被—大气相互作用模型AVIM2，对1981～2000年内蒙古地区陆地生态系统净初级生产力、土壤异养呼吸和净生态系统生产力对气候变化的动态响应进行了模拟；并利用SRES B2情景下的气候要素模拟结果，对未来百年尺度上内蒙古陆地生态系统NPP和NEP的可能变化做出预估，分析了内蒙古陆地生态系统NPP对气候变化的敏感性和NEP反映的“碳源”、“碳汇”的情况。主要结论如下：\n（1）1981～2000年内蒙古地区气温和降水年际变化时空特征：应用经验正交函数分解法的分析表明，内蒙古地区年均温变化场收敛很快，其年际变化在空间上有很好的一致性，年均温变化整体呈现显著的上升趋势；而年降水变化场收敛速度较慢，其年际变化存在较大的空间差异性，全区年降水变化上升趋势不显著。\n（2）1981～2000年内蒙古陆地生态系统NPP时空变化特征：内蒙古陆地生态系统NPP空间分布的基本特点是东部高西部低，大致呈从东北向西南条带状递减。AVIM2模型的模拟结果显示，1981～2000年内蒙古地区陆地生态系统NPP总量在225～378TgC/a (Tg=1012g)之间，年际波动幅度较大，在波动中呈明显的下降趋势；对NPP年际变化趋势的空间差异分析认为，1981～2000年内蒙古大部分区域NPP有减少趋势，部分区域NPP呈增长趋势。整体而言，降水是控制内蒙古地区陆地生态系统NPP年际变化的主要气候因子，但NPP的年际变化也决定于温度和降水的组合和时间分配。\n（3）1981～2000年内蒙古陆地生态系统NEP时空变化特征：1981～2000年内蒙古陆地生态系统NEP总量在-95TgC/a和80TgC/a之间波动；就1981～2000年研究时段来讲，内蒙古陆地生态系统是个“碳汇”，年均净吸收碳2.1Tg。对20 年NEP年际变化趋势空间差异分析发现，内蒙古大部分区域的NEP呈现下降趋势。这主要是由气温持续上升引起土壤呼吸碳释放增强而NPP增加不显著甚至降低造成的。\n（4）B2情景下内蒙古地区气候变化趋势和变化格局：B2情景下1961～2100年内蒙古全区平均年均温、年降水和年均相对湿度增加趋势显著（0.01置信度水平）。年均温表现为全区增加的一致性，且西部荒漠区升温幅度最大；内蒙古西部的年降水相对基准年的变化率明显高于中部和东部；相对湿度的增加率由内蒙古西南部向东北部不断递减，荒漠区和草原化荒漠区是相对湿度增加率最大的区域，而东部落叶阔叶林区和大兴安岭针叶林区是相对湿度减小率最大的区域。\n（5）B2情景下气候变化对内蒙古地区陆地生态系统NPP的可能影响：除稀疏灌丛、荒漠和农作物/自然植被交错生态系统外，其他生态系统类型NPP模拟值在1961～2080年间均呈显著下降趋势（0.05置信度水平）。对于内蒙古全区平均而言，NPP也表现为显著下降趋势。以NPP相对基准年的变化率作为敏感性判别指标分析表明，B2情景下内蒙古地区对未来气候变化负敏感性最强的生态系统类型是荒漠草原和落叶阔叶林，对气候变化敏感性较弱的是稀疏灌丛。近期、中期和远期弱敏感的生态系统面积均占绝对优势，即内蒙古大部分面积的生态系统平均NPP相对基准年变化仍在正常波动范围内（-10%～10%），但其面积在不断减少。内蒙古生态系统负敏感和强负敏感的生态系统面积有不断扩展的趋势。内蒙古地区NPP下降的趋势从初级生产力的角度反映了气候变化对内蒙古生态系统可能造成的负面影响。\n（6）B2情景下气候变化对内蒙古陆地生态系统NEP的可能影响：落叶针叶林、落叶阔叶林、有林草地和草地生态系统1961～2080年NEP在0.01置信度水平上减小趋势显著；稀疏灌丛是受气候变化影响最小的生态系统，在四个时段均为“碳汇”，且变化幅度较小；落叶针叶林、落叶阔叶林和有林草地是受影响较大的生态系统，出现了由“碳汇”向“碳源”的转变。就全区而言，内蒙古整体每个时段均表现为弱的“碳源”，且有不断加强的趋势。NEP下降的变化趋势从碳循环的角度反映了未来气候变化对内蒙古地区陆地生态系统可能的负面影响。 |
| 英文摘要 | It has become an important field in global change and ecology studies to clarify the relationship between climate changes and ecosystems on different scales and reveal the impacts on ecosystems from climate change. Inner Mongolia lies in the transition belt from humid and semi-humid to arid and semiarid in the north of China, where climate has changed dramatically in the past twenty years. Covered by various vegetation types, Inner Mongolia is selected as the typical study area in the dissertation to research the impacts on ecosystems of climate change.\nThe Atmosphere-Vegetation Interaction Model new version (AVIM2) is used to simulate the dynamics of ecosystems responding to climate change in Inner Mongolia during 1981～2000, and the possible changes of NPP and NEP are also predicted in different future periods under SRES B2 scenarios. Sensitivity of NPP to climate change and the situation of carbon sink or source are also analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows:\n(1) Spatial and temporal evolvement characteristic of annual temperature and precipitation during 1981～2000: The annual temperature change is spatially consistent for their fast convergence. The annual temperature change is of increasing trend in Inner Mongolia as a whole. The convergence of annual precipitation change is slow, so there is a spatial diversity for annual precipitation change in Inner Mongolia. The increasing trend of precipitation change isn’t obvious.\n(2) Spatial and temporal evolvement characteristics of terrestrial ecosystems NPP during 1981～2000 in Inner Mongolia: Main characteristic of spatial distribution of NPP is higher in east and lower in west, which is decreasing as a belt from north-east to south-west. The AVIM2 simulation results indicate that the annual total NPP in Inner Mongolia is in the range of 225TgC～378TgC (Tg=1012g), and annually fluctuate largely with an obvious decreasing trend. The spatial difference analysis of NPP annual change shows that NPP in most of the region of Inner Mongolia are decreasing and only in partial region NPP is increasing. Generally, precipitation are the main climatic factor to control the NPP annual change, but the combination and time distribution of temperature and precipitation also have import impact on the NPP annual change.\n(3) Spatial and temporal evolvement characteristics of terrestrial ecosystems NEP during 1981～2000 in Inner Mongolia: Annual total NEP of the terrestrial ecosystems fluctuated between -95TgC and 80TgC. Terrestrial ecosystems in Inner Mongolia is a “carbon sink” for the period of 1981～2000 and the average annual carbon sink is 2.1Tg. The spatial difference analysis of NEP annual change shows that NEP in most of the region of Inner Mongolia is decreasing, which is the results of increasing soil respiration and the faint increasing or even decreasing of NPP.\n(4) Temporal trend and spatial difference of climate change under B2 scenario in Inner Mongolia: the upward trends of average annual temperature, precipitation and relative humidity are significant during 1961~2100 under B2 scenario. Annual temperature of the whole region is increasing with the largest increasing degree in the west desert zone; the increasing rate of annual precipitation in the west zone is higher than that in the middle zone and east zone in Inner Mongolia; the increasing rate of relative humidity is decreasing from the south-west to north-east. The largest increasing rate of relative humidity is in the desert zone and steppe desert zone. The largest decreasing rate is the deciduous broadleaf forest zone and Daxinganling needle leaf forest zone in the north-east Inner Mongolia. \n(5) Possible impacts on NPP of climate change in Inner Mongolia under B2 scenarios: NPP of Most ecosystems are significantly decreasing except open shrublands and cropland/nature vegetation ecosystem during 1961~2080. NPP is also decreasing for the whole region of Inner Mongolia. The ratio of NPP in different periods to baseline years is chosen as a indicator to reflect the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change. The highly sensitive ecosystems are desert steppe and deciduous broadleaf forest. The lowly sensitive ecosystem is open shrublands under B2 scenario. The area of negative sensitively and highly negatively sensitive ecosystem is of a trend of extending. The trend of NPP change reflects the possible negative impact of climate change on ecosystems from the view of primary production. \n(6) Possible impacts on ecosystems NEP of climate change in Inner Mongolia under B2 scenarios: NEP of deciduous broadleaf forest, deciduous needleleaf forest, woody savannas and grassland ecosystem has a significant decreasing trend. Impact of climate change on open shrublands is the least. It is a carbon sink in the four periods and the variation is small. Impact of climate change on deciduous broadleaf forest, deciduous needleleaf forest and woody savannas is largest. There is a transition from carbon sink to carbon source for the four types of ecosystems. NEP is negative in the four periods for the whole Inner Mongolia region, which show it is a weak carbon source. The effect of “carbon source” may be strengthened with the decreasing NEP. The decreasing trend of NEP reflects the negative effect of climate change on ecosystems in Inner Mongolia from the view of carbon circling. |
| 中文关键词 | AVIM2模型 ; 气候变化 ; 陆地生态系统 ; 净初级生产力 ; 净生态系统生产力 ; 可能影响 ; 内蒙古地区 |
| 英文关键词 | AVIM2 climate change terrestrial ecosystems Net Primary Production Net Ecosystem Production possible impact Inner Mongolia |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源学科分类 | 自然地理学 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/286530 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 赵慧霞. 气候变化对内蒙古陆地生态系统初级生产力的可能影响研究[D]. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2007. |
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