Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| 资料环境模型库系统设计与应用-以中国陆地生态系统时空变化趋势及情景分析为例 | |
| 其他题名 | Design and Application of Resources and Environment Model-Base System: Spatial Trend and Scenario Modeling of Terrestrial Ecosystems in China |
| 范泽孟 | |
| 出版年 | 2005 |
| 学位类型 | 博士 |
| 导师 | 岳天祥 |
| 学位授予单位 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 中文摘要 | 资源环境模型库系统是一项极为复杂的系统工程，它的研发将为各种资源环境问题的模拟预测分析提供科学合理的辅助决策支持平台，从而大大提高各种资源环境重大问题研究的精度和效率。它不仅将大大减少和避免目前大量模型重复构建的研究现象，而且将为诸多研究者充分高效地利用已有模型和开发必要的模型提供了技术平台。资源环境模型库系统的总体设计和理论分析在资源环境模型库系统这一复杂的系统工程建设过程中具有重要的理论性指导意义。因此，沦文从资源环境模型库系统的总体设计出发，在构建资源环境数学模型学科分类体系和实现3055组资源环境模型学利一划分的基础上，分别完成了对资源环境模型库系统通用平台的总体框架、实现方案、资源环境模型字典、结构、功能及其与Gls集成等的理论设计和系统分析。针·对资源环境模型库系统建设过程中的关键性问题-系列子模型如何集J戊？论文运用综合集成方法论的理念和系统论的思想，在对目前国际上著名且比较成熟的资源环境综合模型进行系统分析的基础上，引入电路学中的电流传输模式，将模型模拟过程中的数据信息流类比为电流，原创性地提出了资源环境模型综合集成的通用模式（即串联集成模式、并联集成模式和混联集成模式），并完成了各种集成模式的理论论证分析。一种理论模式的提出需要足够的实践来进行证明。论文选择中国陆地生态系统时空变化趋势及未来情景的主要气候要素、HLZ生态系统、土地覆盖变化等方面的综合模拟分析作为案例，对资源环境模型综合集成通用模式的实用性进行实践论证。在论证的过程中，建立了AGIDS气温空间插值模型、平均中心偏移空间分析模型、基于栅格的土地覆盖边际转换模型；引入了伦iging降水插值模型、潜在性蒸腾比率计算模型、HLz模型、平均中心模型、生态多样性模型、斑块连通性模型并对系列模型的输入参数形式进行改进。在此基础＿L，分别集成了主要气候要素时空变化趋势及情景综合分析模型、HLZ生态系统时空变化趋势及情景综合分析模型、土地覆盖时空变化趋势及情景综合分析模型等三个综合分析模型，并对每个综合模型模拟的可信度进行了理论论证和定量分析。在运用上述三个综合分析模型分别对中国陆地生态系统时空变化趋势及未来情景的主要气候要素、HLZ生态系统和土地覆盖变化进行综合模拟分析的过程中，获得了以下主要结论：①气候要素：在1960～2000年间，我国年平均气温和年平均降水量总体呈上升趋势且80年代后的上升速度有所增加，潜在性蒸散比率总体呈减少趋势。另外，基于HadCM3的AIFI、AZ。、BZ。等三种情景数据的模拟结果表明在未来100年内，我国的年平均气温、年平均降水量及潜在性蒸散比率均呈上升趋势。西部的年平均气温和年降水量的增加速度缓慢于中国东部和中部地区，而潜在性蒸散比率的增加速度虽然高于东部和中部地区，但其增加的速度则呈减缓趋势。②HLz生态系统。基于气象站点观测数据和HodCM3的AIFI、AZa、BZ。等三种情景数据的模拟结果表明：在未来100年内随着气温的不断升高和降水量的逐渐增加，冰雪地带面积将逐渐减少；青藏高原、天山山脉及大兴安岭的寒冷型HLZ生态系统面积将呈逐渐减少趋势（譬如，冰雪地带、高山干苔原地带和高山湿润苔原地带等），暖温带的各种干旱HLZ生态系统将呈持续增加趋势（譬如，暖温带荒漠灌丛地带、暖温带有刺草原地带、暖温带干旱森林地带等）；HLZ平均中心偏移幅度大的HLZ生态系统类型对气候相关因子的灵敏性高于其它平均中心偏移幅度小的类型；近40年来HLZ生态系统多样性呈减少趋势，但在未来HLZ生态系统多样性总体上将有所增加，它并不说明未来中国生态系统的稳定性越来越好，恰好相反的是HLZ景观指数的变化反映了随着科学技术的不断进步、社会生产力的进一步提高，降水量逐渐增加及人类活动强度快速增大，许多相对脆弱的生态系统遭到破坏，从而出现了原来没有的HLz生态系统类型；中国HLZ生态系统的时空分布、平均面积、平均中心及多样性等将发生系列相应变化。③土地覆盖。在未来100年内，随着气温的不断升高和降水量的不断增加，各种土地覆盖类型之间存在着不同程度的转换，耕地、林地、草地与其他土地覆盖类型的转换概率相对较高：耕地、草地、湿地、水域、冰川雪被等土地覆盖类型面积逐渐减少，林地、建设用地、荒漠等土地覆盖类型面积逐渐增加，沙漠面积有所减少；土地覆盖类型多样性和连通性分别呈现出逐渐减少与逐渐增加的变化趋势；耕地平均中心偏移距离的波动均小于其它的土地覆盖类型平均中心的偏移情况。综上所述，案例分析系列结果不仅证实了资源环境模型库系统总体设计具有很好的实用性，而且表明了资源环境模型的综合集成模式能够科学合理地对系列资源环境子模型进行综合集成。它们为系统的进一步研发奠定了理论基础、提供了可行方案，并为充分有效利用目前海量的资源环境模型和开发必要模型提供了强大技术支撑平台。 |
| 英文摘要 | Resources and Environment Model-Base System (REMBS) is a high-complicated system that can provide a good assistant and decision-making platform for the simulation and analysis of resource and environmental issues. REMBS includes a theoretical framework, operating program, model dictionary, and integration of REMBS with GIS. Development of REMBS could greatly reduce or even avoid a great amount of repetitious model-constructing work. Researchers could efficiently use the existing models and develop new models based on REMBS. How to integrate a series of models is the key issue in the development of REMBS. On the basis of synthetically analyzing IMAGE, IMPACT, IIASA model, Ecopath with Ecosim model, WaterGAP model, AIM, MERGE, GCM, a new General Mode of Integrating Resources and Environment Models (GMIREM) is creatively developed by introducing the transmitted pattern of electric current in the circuitry. Furthermore, reliabilities of series-wound pattern, shunt-wound pattern, and mix pattern are respectively testified. For validating GMIREM, trend and scenario modeling of HLZ (Holdridge life zone) ecosystems, climate change and land cover change are discussed. During the process of validation, the AGIDS model of temperature interpolation, spatial analysis model of mean center shift trend, and land cover marginal conversion model are constructed. Then, three integrated models are developed, and the reliability and precision of these models are theoretically and quantitatively analyzed. The trends and scenarios of climate change, HLZ ecosystems, and land cover change are simulated and analyzed synthetically by using the three integrated models mentioned above. (1) Climate issues: From 1960 to 2000, annual mean temperature and precipitation increase generally, and the increasing rates are especially faster after 1980s, while potential evapotranspiration ratio decreases generally. Three scenarios simulated respectively based on HadCM3AlFI, HadCM3A2a, and HadCM3B2a show that annual temperature; annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration ratio in China would all increase in the future 100 years. Annual temperature and precipitation increase in western China would be slower than in eastern and central China, while potential evaporation rate in western China would increase faster than the other region of China, but the increasing rate would be slower. (2) HLZ ecosystems: The results based on observation data from climate observation stations and the three scenarios simulated respectively by HadCM3AlFI, HadCM3A2a, and HadCM3B2a show that with temperature rising and precipitation increasing, ice and snow area would decrease. Area of cold temperature types of HLZ ecosystems (eg. nival area, alpine dry tundra area and alpine moist tundra area) in Qinghai-Tibet plateau, Tianshan mountains and Da Hinggan mountains would decrease, while area of warm temperature types of HLZ ecosystems (eg. warm temperature desert scrub area, warm temperature thorn steppe area and warm temperature dry forest area) would increase. The HLZ ecosystem types with larger shift of mean center are more sensitive to climate relative factors than other HLZ ecosystem types. The HLZ ecosystem diversity has been decreasing in the recent 40 years and would increase generally in the future. (3) Land cover: There would be conversions between land cover types in the future 100 years with temperature and precipitation increasing, especially the conversion between cultivated land, wood land, grassland and other land cover types. Cultivated land, grassland, wetland, water area and nival area would decrease, wood land, built-up area, and desertification area would increase, while area of desert would reduce. Ecological diversity and patch connectivity of land cover would show a decreasing and increasing trend respectively. Shift fluctuation of mean centers of cultivated land is less than others. All results not only prove that the general designing of REMBS has good practicability, but also indicate that the GMIREM could be applied to integrate a series of models related to a specific subject, which could work as a technical support platform for sufficiently utilizing the existing models and efficiently developing new models. |
| 中文关键词 | 资源环境模型库系统 ; 模型综合集成 ; 气候变化 ; 陆地生态系统 ; 土地覆盖 ; 变化趋势 ; 情景分析 |
| 英文关键词 | Resource and environmental model-base system Model integration Climatic change Terrestrial ecosystems Land cover Change trend Scenarios |
| 语种 | 中文 |
| 国家 | 中国 |
| 来源机构 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 资源类型 | 学位论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/286394 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 范泽孟. 资料环境模型库系统设计与应用-以中国陆地生态系统时空变化趋势及情景分析为例[D]. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2005. |
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