干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): ESTIMATING RISK TO CALIFORNIA ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

Arid

DOI	10.2172/1026811
报告编号	LBNL-4967E
来源ID	OSTI_ID: 1026811
	ESTIMATING RISK TO CALIFORNIA ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE
	Sathaye, Jayant; Dale, Larry; Larsen, Peter; Fitts, Gary; Koy, Kevin; Lewis, Sarah; Lucena, Andre
英文摘要	This report outlines the results of a study of the impact of climate change on the energy infrastructure of California and the San Francisco Bay region, including impacts on power plant generation; transmission line and substation capacity during heat spells; wildfires near transmission lines; sea level encroachment upon power plants, substations, and natural gas facilities; and peak electrical demand. Some end-of-century impacts were projected:Expected warming will decrease gas-fired generator efficiency. The maximum statewide coincident loss is projected at 10.3 gigawatts (with current power plant infrastructure and population), an increase of 6.2 percent over current temperature-induced losses. By the end of the century, electricity demand for almost all summer days is expected to exceed the current ninetieth percentile per-capita peak load. As much as 21 percent growth is expected in ninetieth percentile peak demand (per-capita, exclusive of population growth). When generator losses are included in the demand, the ninetieth percentile peaks may increase up to 25 percent. As the climate warms, California's peak supply capacity will need to grow faster than the population.Substation capacity is projected to decrease an average of 2.7 percent. A 5C (9F) air temperature increase (the average increase predicted for hot days in August) will diminish the capacity of a fully-loaded transmission line by an average of 7.5 percent.The potential exposure of transmission lines to wildfire is expected to increase with time. We have identified some lines whose probability of exposure to fire are expected to increase by as much as 40 percent. Up to 25 coastal power plants and 86 substations are at risk of flooding (or partial flooding) due to sea level rise.
出版年	2011
报告类型	Technical Report
语种	英语
国家	美国
来源学科分类	03 NATURAL GAS ; 24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION ; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY ; CALIFORNIA ; CAPACITY ; CLIMATES ; CLIMATIC CHANGE ; EFFICIENCY ; ELECTRICITY ; NATURAL GAS ; PEAK LOAD ; POWER PLANTS ; POWER TRANSMISSION LINES ; PROBABILITY ; SAN FRANCISCO BAY ; SEA LEVEL Electricity, Transmission, Climate Change, Generation, Sea Level, Wildfires
URL	http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1026811
资源类型	科技报告
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/270265
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sathaye, Jayant,Dale, Larry,Larsen, Peter,et al. ESTIMATING RISK TO CALIFORNIA ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE,2011.