干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Executive summary for assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

Arid

DOI	10.2172/1028887
报告编号	SAND2010-2200
来源ID	OSTI_ID: 1028887
	Executive summary for assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.
	Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Reinert, Rhonda K.; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.
英文摘要	Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts of climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-model ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.
出版年	2010
报告类型	Technical Report
语种	英语
国家	美国
来源学科分类	29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY ; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES ; CLIMATE MODELS ; CLIMATES ; ECONOMIC IMPACT ; ECONOMICS ; EMPLOYMENT ; GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ; INCOME ; PRECIPITATION ; RISK ASSESSMENT ; WEATHER
URL	http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1028887
资源类型	科技报告
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/270004
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Loose, Verne W.,Lowry, Thomas Stephen,Malczynski, Leonard A.,et al. Executive summary for assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.,2010.