干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.

Arid

DOI	10.2172/1001003
报告编号	SAND2009-7001
来源ID	OSTI_ID: 1001003
	Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.
	Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Kelic, Andjelka; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.
英文摘要	Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change - precipitation - to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change. We show that the mean risk of damage to the economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of labor-years. We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance.
出版年	2009
报告类型	Technical Report
语种	英语
国家	美国
来源学科分类	54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES ; CLIMATES ; DOLLARS ; ECONOMIC IMPACT ; ECONOMICS ; EMPLOYMENT ; INCOME ; PRECIPITATION ; RISK ASSESSMENT ; WEATHER
URL	http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1001003
资源类型	科技报告
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/269910
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Loose, Verne W.,Lowry, Thomas Stephen,Malczynski, Leonard A.,et al. Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.,2009.