干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Exploring the concept of climate surprises. A review of the literature on the concept of surprise and how it is related to climate change

Arid

DOI	10.2172/666195
报告编号	ANL/DIS/TM--46
来源ID	OSTI_ID: 666195
	Exploring the concept of climate surprises. A review of the literature on the concept of surprise and how it is related to climate change
	Glantz, M.H.; Moore, C.M. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)]; Streets, D.G.; Bhatti, N.; Rosa, C.H. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Decision and Information Sciences Div.]; Stewart, T.R. [State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY (United States)]
英文摘要	This report examines the concept of climate surprise and its implications for environmental policymaking. Although most integrated assessment models of climate change deal with average values of change, it is usually the extreme events or surprises that cause the most damage to human health and property. Current models do not help the policymaker decide how to deal with climate surprises. This report examines the literature of surprise in many aspects of human society: psychology, military, health care, humor, agriculture, etc. It draws together various ways to consider the concept of surprise and examines different taxonomies of surprise that have been proposed. In many ways, surprise is revealed to be a subjective concept, triggered by such factors as prior experience, belief system, and level of education. How policymakers have reacted to specific instances of climate change or climate surprise in the past is considered, particularly with regard to the choices they made between proactive and reactive measures. Finally, the report discusses techniques used in the current generation of assessment models and makes suggestions as to how climate surprises might be included in future models. The report concludes that some kinds of surprises are simply unpredictable, but there are several types that could in some way be anticipated and assessed, and their negative effects forestalled.
出版年	1998
报告类型	Technical Report
语种	英语
国家	美国
来源学科分类	54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES ; 29 ENERGY PLANNING AND POLICY ; CLIMATIC CHANGE ; ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ; CLIMATE MODELS ; DECISION MAKING
URL	http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/666195
资源类型	科技报告
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/260488
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Glantz, M.H.,Moore, C.M. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO ,Streets, D.G.,et al. Exploring the concept of climate surprises. A review of the literature on the concept of surprise and how it is related to climate change,1998.