干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Towards the detection and attribution of an anthropogenic effect on climate

Arid

DOI	10.2172/28300
报告编号	UCRL-ID--119098; PCMDI--21
来源ID	OSTI_ID: 28300
	Towards the detection and attribution of an anthropogenic effect on climate
	Santer, B.D.; Taylor, K.E.; Penner, J.E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)]; Wigley, T.M.L. [UCAR Office for Interdisciplinary Earth Studies, Boulder, CO (United States)]; Jones, P.D. [Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom). Climatic Research Unit]; Cubasch, U. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, Hamburg (Germany)]
英文摘要	It has been hypothesized recently that cooling caused by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may be obscuring a warming signal associated with changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Here the authors use results from model experiments in which sulfate and carbon dioxide have been varied individually and in combination in order to determine whether the simulated surface temperature change patterns are increasingly evident in observed records of temperature change. They use centered [R(t)] and uncentered [C(t)] pattern correlation statistics in order to compare observed time-evolving surface temperature change patterns with the model-predicted equilibrium signal patterns. They show that in the case of temperature signals from the ``CO{sub 2}-only`` and ``sulfate-only`` experiments, the C(t) statistic essentially reduces to a measure of observed global-mean temperature changes, and cannot be used to uniquely attribute observed climate changes to a specific causal mechanism. For the signal from the experiment with combined CO{sub 2}/sulfate aerosol forcing, C(t) provides information on pattern congruence, but trends in C(t) are difficult to interpret without decomposing the statistic into pattern similarity and global-mean change components. They therefore focus on R(t), which is a more useful statistic for discriminating between forcing mechanisms with different pattern signatures but similar rates of global mean change.
出版年	1995
报告类型	Technical Report
语种	英语
国家	美国
来源学科分类	54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES ; GREENHOUSE EFFECT ; FORECASTING ; CARBON DIOXIDE ; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS ; SULFATES ; CLIMATE MODELS ; ECOLOGICAL CONCENTRATION ; AMBIENT TEMPERATURE ; EXPERIMENTAL DATA
URL	http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/28300
资源类型	科技报告
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/260408
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Santer, B.D.,Taylor, K.E.,Penner, J.E. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA ,et al. Towards the detection and attribution of an anthropogenic effect on climate,1995.