干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, appendices A and B

Arid

DOI	10.2172/25041
报告编号	NUREG/CR--6244-Vol.2; EUR--15855EN-Vol.2;SAND--94-1453-Vol.2
来源ID	OSTI_ID: 25041
	Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, appendices A and B
	Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)]; Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)]; Lui, C.H. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)]; Goossens, L.H.J.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)]; Paesler-Sauer, J. [Research Center, Karlsruhe (Germany)]; Helton, J.C. [and others]
英文摘要	The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the second of a three-volume document describing the project and contains two appendices describing the rationales for the dispersion and deposition data along with short biographies of the 16 experts who participated in the project.
出版年	1995
报告类型	Technical Report
语种	英语
国家	美国
来源学科分类	22 NUCLEAR REACTOR TECHNOLOGY ; 05 NUCLEAR FUELS ; RADIATION ACCIDENTS ; RISK ASSESSMENT ; PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION ; REACTOR ACCIDENTS ; FALLOUT ; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS ; LETHAL DOSES ; WASHOUT ; BOUNDARY CONDITIONS ; US NRC ; PLUMES ; DOSIMETRY ; HEALTH HAZARDS ; RADIATION EFFECTS ; COMPUTER CALCULATIONS ; SAFETY ANALYSIS ; FISSION PRODUCTS
URL	http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/25041
资源类型	科技报告
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/260405
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Harper, F.T.,Young, M.L.,Miller, L.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM ,et al. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, appendices A and B,1995.