干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Simulation of land-use patterns affecting the global carbon cycle. [Reconstruction and projection of CO/sub 2/ scenarios from 1860 to 2460]

Arid

DOI	10.2172/6206754
报告编号	ORNL/TM-6651
来源ID	OSTI_ID: 6206754
	Simulation of land-use patterns affecting the global carbon cycle. [Reconstruction and projection of CO/sub 2/ scenarios from 1860 to 2460]
	Chan, Y.H.; Olson, J.S.; Emanuel, W.R.
英文摘要	Past increase of atmospheric CO/sub 2/ involves significant ntributions from both fossil and nonfossil (biospheric) sources. A simulation model was used to reconstruct changes since 1860 and project four hypothetical future scenarios of CO/sub 2/ injection to 2460. Nineteen compartments and their exchanges of carbon were considered. Areal extent of tropical forests, other wooded ecosystems, and nonforests were incorporated into the model. Rapidly and slowly exchanging pools of carbon per unit area, and net primary production for each pool and exosystem group, were projected by integrating income-loss differential equations numerically using CSMP programming language. Estimated cumulative releases of CO/sub 2/ from fossil fuels (plus cement) near 120 Gtons of carbon (1 Gton = 10/sup 9/ metric tons) from 1860 to 1970 were assumed to equal prompt and delayed releases from forest clearing. Limits of exploitable forest area and biomass were evaluated and found to contribute much less future CO/sub 2/ than the usable coal, oil, gas, and oil shale. Ultimate release from the latter (7500 +- 2500 x 10/sup 9/ tons of C) could increase atmospheric CO/sub 2/ manyfold: doubling the assumed 1860 levels as early as (1) year 2025 for assumed nominal scenario (expanding releases slightly less rapidly than at present), (2) year 2033 for a delayed expansion scenario that would prolong use of fossil reserves (lowering peak carbon release rate from approx. 43 to approx. 28 Gtons/year), (3) year 2087 for a slow burner scenario (increasing very slowly from present levels), and (4) year 2290 for a combination scenario (which assumes low fossil-fuel use, high carbon storage, and high net primary production of forested exosystems).
出版年	1979
报告类型	Technical Report
语种	英语
国家	美国
来源学科分类	54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES ; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY ; AIR POLLUTION ; FORECASTING ; BIOSPHERE ; CARBON ; MINERAL CYCLING ; EARTH ATMOSPHERE ; CARBON DIOXIDE ; FORESTS ; FOSSIL FUELS ; MATHEMATICAL MODELS ; SIMULATION ; TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS ; CARBON COMPOUNDS ; CARBON OXIDES ; CHALCOGENIDES ; ECOSYSTEMS ; ELEMENTS ; ENERGY SOURCES ; ENVIRONMENT ; FUELS ; NONMETALS ; OXIDES ; OXYGEN COMPOUNDS ; POLLUTION 500100* -- Environment, Atmospheric-- Basic Studies-- (-1989) ; 500200 -- Environment, Atmospheric-- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport-- (-1989) ; 530200 -- Environmental-Social Aspects of Energy Technologies-- Assessment of Energy Technologies-- (-1989)
URL	http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/6206754
资源类型	科技报告
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/259880
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chan, Y.H.,Olson, J.S.,Emanuel, W.R.. Simulation of land-use patterns affecting the global carbon cycle. [Reconstruction and projection of CO/sub 2/ scenarios from 1860 to 2460],1979.