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报告编号NASA-CR-168948, NAS 1.26:168948, ATS-333
来源IDNTRS_Document_ID: 19820016915
Tropical cyclone intensity change. A quantitative forecasting scheme
Dropco, K. M.; Gray, W. M.
英文摘要One to two day future tropical cyclone intensity change from both a composite and an individual case point-of-view are discussed. Tropical cyclones occurring in the Gulf of Mexico during the period 1957-1977 form the primary data source. Weather charts of the NW Atlantic were initially examined, but few differences were found between intensifying and non-intensifying cyclones. A rawinsonde composite analysis detected composite differences in the 200 mb height fields, the 850 mb temperature fields, the 200 mb zonal wind and the vertical shears of the zonal wind. The individual cyclones which make up the composite study were then separately examined using this composite case knowledge. Similar parameter differences were found in a majority of individual cases. A cyclone intensity change forecast scheme was tested against independent storm cases. Correct predictions of intensification or non-intensification could be made approximately 75% of the time.
英文关键词STATISTICAL WEATHER FORECASTING TROPICAL METEOROLOGY TROPICAL STORMS CASE HISTORIES CLIMATE DIURNAL VARIATIONS METEOROLOGICAL CHARTS RAWINSONDES STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
出版年1981
报告类型Technical Report
语种英语
国家美国
URLhttp://hdl.handle.net/2060/19820016915
资源类型科技报告
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/258879
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Dropco, K. M.,Gray, W. M.. Tropical cyclone intensity change. A quantitative forecasting scheme,1981.
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