干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): SWAT模型参数不确定性对黄河上游径流模拟的影响

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	SWAT模型参数不确定性对黄河上游径流模拟的影响
其他题名	Influence of uncertainties in SWAT model parameters on runoff simulation in upper reaches of the Yellow River
	周帅; 王义民; 郭爱军; 周凯; 李紫妍
来源期刊	西北农林科技大学学报. 自然科学版
ISSN	1671-9387
出版年	2019
卷号	47 期号:8 页码:144-154
中文摘要	【目的】探究水文模型参数独立及交互作用对径流模拟的影响,为SWAT模型在我国干旱区的应用提供参考。【方法】采用拉丁超立方方法(LH-OAT)对SWAT模型中的参数进行敏感性分析,以黄河唐乃亥水文站以上流域和唐乃亥至兰州区间流域1960-2010年(1977-1981年为率定期,1982-1986年为验证期)的月径流资料为研究对象,利用SUFI-2方法评价模拟参数平均坡度(HRU_SLP)、土壤饱和容重(SOL_BD)、土壤蒸发补偿系数(ESCO)、土壤饱和水力传导度(SOL_K)、土壤表层到底层的深度(SOL_Z)、径流曲线数(CN2)、浅层含水层渗透到深层含水层的阈值深度(REVAPMN)、基流alpha因子(ALPHA_BF)、平均坡长(SLSUBBSN)和土壤层有效含水量(SOL_AWC)10个模拟参数的不确定性对流域径流模拟的影响;并以方差指标作为模型评价指标,定量评估参数交互作用对径流模拟的影响。【结果】唐乃亥和兰州水文站的月径流模拟与实测水文过程拟合效果较好,率定期和验证期纳什效率系数NSE(Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient)与相关系数R2均大于0.81,且相对误差\|Re\|均小于20%;唐乃亥水文站以上流域参数SLSUBBSN和ALPHA_BF与唐乃亥至兰州区间流域参数SLSUBBSN、HRU_ SLP和SOL_K的不确定性对目标函数值的影响较大,其余参数的不确定性影响较小;参数ALPHA_BF与SOL_Z和参数CN2与SLSUBBSN的交互作用对径流模拟影响较大,表明参数的交互作用给径流模拟影响带来的不确定性大。【结论】探究参数的不确定性对径流模拟的影响,有利于模型参数的选取,进而减少径流模拟过程中的参数不确定性。
英文摘要	【Objective】The influence of independence and interaction of hydrological model parameters on runoff simulations was discussed to improve the application of SWAT in arid areas of China.【Method】 The Latin hypercube method(LH-OAT)was used to carry out parameter sensitivity analysis in the SWAT model with the monthly runoff data from 1960to 2010(calibration 1977-1981and validation 1982-1986) in the basins of the Yellow River above the Tangnaihai hydrological station and between Tangnaihai and Lanzhou.The influences of uncertainties in parameters including average slope(HRU_SLP),soil saturated bulk density(SOL_BD),soil evaporation compensation coefficient(ESCO),soil saturated hydraulic conductivity(SOL_K),soil surface-to-bottom depth(SOL_Z),runoff curve number(CN2),threshold depth (REVAPMN)of shallow aquifer penetrating deep aquifer,basic-flow factor(ALPHA_BF),mean slope length(SLSUBBSN)and soil available water content(SOL_AWC)on runoff simulation were evaluated by SUFI-2method.The variance index was to quantitatively evaluate the effect of parameters interaction on runoff simulation.【Result】The simulation of monthly runoff at Tangnaihai and Lanzhou hydrological stations had good fitting results with the observed hydrological processes.The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE)and correlation coefficient R2 were greater than 0.81and\|Re\|values were less than 20%in both calibration and verification periods.The uncertainties of SLSUBBSN and ALPHA_BF above Tangnaihai hydrological station and SLSUBBSN,HRU_SLP and SOL_K between Tangnaihai and Lanzhou had great influence on NSE,while other parameters had little influence.The interactions of ALPHA_BF with SOL_Z and CN2with SLSUBBSN had great influence on runoff simulation,indicating that the interaction of parameters would cause great uncertainties to runoff simulation.【Conclusion】Investigating the impact of parameter uncertainty on runoff simulation would benefit the selection of model parameters and the reduction of parameters uncertainties in runoff simulation.
中文关键词	SWAT模型 ; 参数敏感性 ; 参数不确定性 ; 水文模拟 ; 黄河上游
英文关键词	SWAT model parameter sensitivity parameter uncertainty hydrological simulation upper reaches of the Yellow River
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向	Geology
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6516000
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/239610
作者单位	西安理工大学, 陕西省部共建西北旱区生态水利国家重点实验室, 西安, 陕西 710048, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	周帅,王义民,郭爱军,等. SWAT模型参数不确定性对黄河上游径流模拟的影响[J],2019,47(8):144-154.
APA	周帅,王义民,郭爱军,周凯,&李紫妍.(2019).SWAT模型参数不确定性对黄河上游径流模拟的影响.西北农林科技大学学报. 自然科学版,47(8),144-154.
MLA	周帅,et al."SWAT模型参数不确定性对黄河上游径流模拟的影响".西北农林科技大学学报. 自然科学版 47.8(2019):144-154.