干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 甘肃省春玉米灾损风险评估

Arid

	甘肃省春玉米灾损风险评估
其他题名	Risk Assessment of Spring Maize Disaster in Gansu Province
	齐月 1; 阳伏林 1; 姚玉璧 1; 王润元 1; 房世波 2
来源期刊	水土保持研究
ISSN	1005-3409
出版年	2019
卷号	26 期号:2 页码:352-358
中文摘要	干旱是影响西北地区春玉米生产的主要气象灾害。应用甘肃省19802011年71个县(市)的春玉米播种面积和总产量资料,以风险理论为基础,采用风险评估技术方法,探讨了甘肃省县、市春玉米产量在干旱气候条件下的波动和减产的风险水平,通过正态分布判别和偏态分布正态化,研究了西北地区春玉米不同年型减产率变化特征,分析了甘肃省玉米产量灾害风险的空间分布规律,以期为防灾减灾提供理论依据。结果显示:不同等级风险区域呈整体上分散、小面积连片的特点,河西地区减产率最高,其次为陇中地区。高风险区主要集中在陇东地区的东部,较高风险区分布在陇中、陇东大部分地区,河西地区通过灌溉可有效缓解旱灾,风险较低。不同减产率等级下风险分析可为春玉米产量风险预测及抗灾减损、农业保险指数制定和农业保险赔付等提供参考。
英文摘要	The spring maize was seriously influenced by drought disaster in Northwest China.Based on the risk theory and risk assessment method,the spring maize acreage and total yield of 71 counties or cities in Gansu Province during 19802011 were analyzed to explore the risk level of fluctuation and yield reduction of spring maize production in Gansu Province under arid climatic conditions.Through the discrimination of normal distribution and the normalization of skewness distribution,we studied the variation of yield reduction rates of spring maize in different years in Northwest China and analyzed the spatial distribution pattern of spring maize production disaster risk in order to provide theoretical basis for disaster prevention and reduction. The results indicated that the risk areas of different degrees scattered on the whole and contiguous in a small area,among which the highest of rate yield occurred in Hexi Area,followed by Longzhong Area;highrisk areas mainly concentrated in the eastern part of Longdong,the higher-risk areas distributed in the most parts of central and eastern Guizhou;Hexi Area can effectively alleviate drought through irrigation,and has the lower risk.The results can provide the references for predicting the risk of yield loses,resisting drought disaster and decreasing economic loses.
中文关键词	春玉米 ; 干旱 ; 减产率 ; 风险概率 ; 变异系数
英文关键词	spring maize drought rate of yield reduction risk probability coefficient of variation
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6463818
来源机构	中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/239546
作者单位	1.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所, 甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室;;中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室, 兰州, 甘肃 730020, 中国; 2.中国气象科学研究院生态环境与农业气象研究所, 北京 100081, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	齐月,阳伏林,姚玉璧,等. 甘肃省春玉米灾损风险评估[J]. 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,2019,26(2):352-358.
APA	齐月,阳伏林,姚玉璧,王润元,&房世波.(2019).甘肃省春玉米灾损风险评估.水土保持研究,26(2),352-358.
MLA	齐月,et al."甘肃省春玉米灾损风险评估".水土保持研究 26.2(2019):352-358.