干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 多变量干旱事件识别与频率计算方法

Arid

	多变量干旱事件识别与频率计算方法
其他题名	Drought identification and drought frequency analysis based on multiple variables
	徐翔宇 1; 许凯 2; 杨大文 3; 郦建强 1
来源期刊	水科学进展
ISSN	1001-6791
出版年	2019
卷号	30 期号:3 页码:373-381
中文摘要	干旱持续时间久、影响范围大,时空连续性是干旱的基本特征,以往研究大多考虑单变量或双变量。通过给定阈值识别干旱斑块和判断两相邻时间干旱的连续性,提出了时空连续的干旱事件三维识别方法,用干旱历时、干旱面积、干旱烈度、干旱强度和干旱中心位置5个特征变量对一场干旱事件进行度量;提出了基于Copula函数的干旱历时-面积-烈度三变量频率分析方法。以中国西南地区为例,采用SPI(Standard Precipitation Index)干旱指标识别了近52年发生历时等于或大于3个月的干旱事件,一共78场,其中2009年8月至2010年6月最严重干旱事件的重现期为94年一遇。通过比较概率分布函数和Copula函数,表明在干旱频率分析时需要考虑干旱历时、面积、烈度3个特征变量。
英文摘要	Droughts have such essential features as long duration,large scope of influence,and spatio-temporal continuity,and a single variable or double variables were mostly considered in previous studies.By identifying arid patches and judging the continuity between two adjacent droughts based on the given threshold,a spatio-temporally continuous 3D identification method has been proposed for drought events,measuring a drought event in terms of 5 characteristic variables of duration,area,severity,intensity,and central location;the duration-area-severity frequency analysis method based on Copula function has been proposed.Taking Southwest China as an example,SPI drought indices are used to identify the drought events that lasted 3 months or longer in recent 52 years,which totaled 78.Among them,the most serious event from Aug.2009 to Jun.2010 has a recurrence period of 94 years.The comparison between the probability distribution function and the Copula function indicates that the 3 characteristic variables of duration,area and severity shall be simultaneously considered upon frequency analysis of drought events.
中文关键词	干旱 ; 频率分析 ; Copula函数 ; 三维联合概率 ; 重现期 ; 西南地区
英文关键词	drought frequency analysis Copula function 3-D joint probability recurrence period Southwest China
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	ENGINEERING MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向	Engineering
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6523903
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/239507
作者单位	1.水利部水利水电规划设计总院, 北京 100120, 中国; 2.长江勘测规划设计研究院, 武汉, 湖北 430010, 中国; 3.清华大学水利水电工程系, 北京 100084, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	徐翔宇,许凯,杨大文,等. 多变量干旱事件识别与频率计算方法[J],2019,30(3):373-381.
APA	徐翔宇,许凯,杨大文,&郦建强.(2019).多变量干旱事件识别与频率计算方法.水科学进展,30(3),373-381.
MLA	徐翔宇,et al."多变量干旱事件识别与频率计算方法".水科学进展 30.3(2019):373-381.