干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 基于Logistic 回归模型的内蒙古多伦县土地沙漠化驱动力分析

Arid

	基于Logistic 回归模型的内蒙古多伦县土地沙漠化驱动力分析
其他题名	Driving forces on land desertification in Duolun County Inner Mongolia based on Logistic regress model
	阿如旱; 都来; 盛艳; 阿斯那
来源期刊	干旱区地理
ISSN	1000-6060
出版年	2019
卷号	42 期号:1 页码:137-143
中文摘要	以内蒙古多伦县1960、1975、1987、1995、2000、2005年的土地沙漠化矢量数据及2010年2015年的遥感影像、地形图为主要数据来源,运用NEVI5. 0和ArcGIS10. 2软件提取8个时期土地沙漠化空间信息,划分为轻度沙漠化、中度沙漠化、重度沙漠化、严重沙漠化等不同类型进行时空分异特征分析。通过选取海拔高程、年均气温、降水量、平均风速、牲畜数量、第一产业、居民点距离等统计数据,运用Logistic回归模型定量分析了土地沙漠化动力机制,为京津风沙源区防治土地沙漠化,改善生态环境提供科学理论依据。结果表明: 19602015年间多伦县土地沙漠化面积呈减少趋势,其中19601995年间呈发展趋势,19952015年间呈减少趋势; 19601995年间各类土地沙漠化增长的主导因子是第一产业和居民点距离;而在19952015年间影响各类土地沙漠化的主导因子是降水量、牲畜数量、第一产业和居民点距离。未来将继续控制牲畜数量、实施土地沙漠化治理政策来逆转土地沙漠化发展。
英文摘要	Taking the desertification vector data of 1960, 1975, 1987, 1995, 2000 and 2005 in Duolun County of Inner Mongolia,China and the remote sensing images and topographic maps of 2010 in 2010 as the main data sources,using ENVI5. 0 and ArcGIS10. 2 software to extract the spatial information of desertification in 8 periods, the characteristics of desertification in different desertification types such as mild desertification,moderate desertification, heavy desertification and severe desertification were analyzed in spatial and temporal differences. Duolun County is located in the desert and steppe transitional zone,ecological background is more fragile,agricultural production conditions change more frequently,and the process of desertification induced by human factors at a high level of intensity for nearly half a century. According to the actual situation of the study area, statistical data such as elevation, average annual temperature,precipitation,average wind speed,number of livestock,primary industry and residential area were selected. Logistic regression model was used to analyze quantitatively the dynamic mechanism of desertification. The results showed that the area of desertification in Duolun County decreased from 1960 to 2015, with a tendency of increasing from 1960 to 1995 and a decreasing trend from 1995 to 2015. The dominant factor to various types of desertification growth from 1960 to 1995 was primary idustry and residential areas; and in 1995 2015 the dominant factor affecting various types of land desertification was precipitation, livestock,primary industry and residential distance. In the future,we will continue to control the number of livestock and implement the policy of desertification control to reverse the development of land desertification.
中文关键词	土地沙漠化 ; 驱动力 ; Logistic 回归模型 ; 内蒙古多伦县
英文关键词	land desertification driving forces Logistic regression model Duolun County of Inner Mongolia
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6413883
来源机构	内蒙古农业大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/239106
作者单位	内蒙古农业大学沙漠治理学院, 呼和浩特, 内蒙古 010011, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	阿如旱,都来,盛艳,等. 基于Logistic 回归模型的内蒙古多伦县土地沙漠化驱动力分析[J]. 内蒙古农业大学,2019,42(1):137-143.
APA	阿如旱,都来,盛艳,&阿斯那.(2019).基于Logistic 回归模型的内蒙古多伦县土地沙漠化驱动力分析.干旱区地理,42(1),137-143.
MLA	阿如旱,et al."基于Logistic 回归模型的内蒙古多伦县土地沙漠化驱动力分析".干旱区地理 42.1(2019):137-143.