干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 质疑:红旗河调水功能的可行性

Arid

	质疑:红旗河调水功能的可行性
其他题名	The Query:The Feasibility of theWater Diversion Function ofHongqi River
	杨勤业 1; 景可 1; 徐建辉 2
来源期刊	自然资源学报
ISSN	1000-3037
出版年	2018
卷号	33 期号:5 页码:893-898
中文摘要	据报道,红旗河方案确定的基本目标是由雅鲁藏布江、怒江、澜沧江、金沙江、雅砻江、大渡河调水600亿m~3至新疆等干旱区,发展2亿亩农田(1亩=1/15hm~2),建15万~20万km~2绿带,以此彻底改善西北干旱区的生态与环境。红旗河通过上述河流的各调水点以上的年均径流量总和为1444亿m~3,占被调水河流总径流量的35%;红旗河计划年调水量约占可调水量1444亿m~3的42%。如果不考虑国际河流、调水口以下的水电站及工程的正常运行等因素,单纯就水资源而论,600亿m~3总调水量是可行的。红旗河是跨流域调水的宏大设想,已经引起国内外的广泛关注,但这个宏大的设想也面临地质、技术、经济、社会、生态等领域的多重严峻挑战,存在极大的不确定性。特别是600亿m~3的水能解决什么问题?在实施工程之前应该充分论证,采取有效措施防范和减轻这些风险带来的危害。从自然地理、资源环境和区域发展角度看,以下问题值得商榷:从主要受水区域新疆看,依据现有农田的净灌溉定额(大约600m~3/亩),即使完全不考虑渠道(干渠及农田灌溉支渠)中途渗漏与水面蒸发,理论上最多发展1亿亩农田。同样,根据新疆为了维持塔里木河下游大海子水库以下的511km~2湿地所调用的水量估算,15万km~2生态绿带建设每年至少需水1100多亿m~3。600亿m~3引水量既无法实现建造2亿亩农田的需要,也无法满足15万km~2生态绿带的需要,二者同时实现更无可能。何况这600亿m~3的水要经过6000多km的长途跋涉,渗漏和蒸发非常大,最终能有多少水达到受水区?该项目计划建设期10a、投资4万亿元,每亩农田(以2亿亩计算)2万元,每m~3水费近66元。工程建成运行时,谁来为昂贵的水费买单?调水可能引起的环境影响和生态后果具有极大的不确定性,需要给予高度关注。如调入区是内流区,降水量小,蒸发量大,地形封闭,缺乏排水出路,环境条件特殊。大量引水,在灌溉不当的情况下,极易导致土壤次生盐渍化。跨流域调水工程不仅仅是一个复杂的水利工程,还是一个十分复杂的生态系统工程,更是一个十分复杂的社会经济工程。环境效应、生态后果和社会经济影响涉及复杂的地球物理、化学和生物过程,也涉及复杂的人地关系和谐平衡过程。红旗河同时涉及国际河流,潜在的地缘政治关系需要引起重视。在现有认识水平下,需要对这些问题进行深入系统研究,分析各系统之间的相互关系及影响规律,提出理性的评价系统和论证方案。此外,在红旗河的舆论造势中,还存在几个有悖科学认知的观点,如改变中国气候格局、森林致水作用、打破千百年来的胡焕庸线等。文章均进行了分析和澄清。
英文摘要	It is reported that the basic goal of theHongqi RiverProject (also known asRed Flag RiverProject) is to improve the ecological and environmental conditions of dry areas in the Northwest China by transfering water from the Yarlung Zangbo River,the Nu River,the Lancang River,the Jinsha River,the Yalong River and the Dadu River in the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau,to Xinjiang and other arid areas.By this way,200 million mu (around 13.3310~4 km~2) of farmland and oasis could be developed in the dry areas.Hongqi RiverProject is a grand idea of water diversion across river basins,which has attracted wide attention at home and abroad.However,this grand idea also faces multiple severe challenges in the fields of geology,technology,economy,society and ecology,and there is a great uncertainty.From the perspective of physical geography,natural resources and environment and regional development,60 billion m~3 of water cannot meet the needs of the construction of 200 million mu of farmland,nor can it meet the needs of the ecological green belt of 1510~4 km~2,and the two cannot be realized at the same time.In addition,how much water can reach the receiving area when there is strong leakage and evaporation along the river? The project is planned to be built for 10 years,with investment of 4 trillion yuan.The investment of farmland irrigation per mu is around 2*10~4 yuan,and the water charge per cubic meter is nearly 66 yuan.Who will pay for the expensive water bill when the project is completed and running? The environmental impacts and ecological consequences caused by water diversion are of great uncertainty and need to be highly concerned.The water diversion project is not only a complex water conservancy project,but also a very complex ecosystem engineering,and a very complicated social and economic project.Environmental effects,ecological consequences and socioeconomic effects involve complex geophysical,chemical and biological processes,as well as the complex process of harmonious balance between human and earth relations.TheHongqi RiverProject involves international rivers at the same time.The potential geopolitical risks need to be drawn attention.At the existing level of understanding,it is necessary to make a thorough and systematic study of these problems.In addition,in the public awareness ofHongqi River,there are still several views that are contrary to scientific cognition,such aschanging the climate pattern of China,forest causing precipitation,and breaking theHu Huanyong Line.The analysis and clarification for these misunderstandings are carried out in the paper.
中文关键词	红旗河调水 ; 自然规律 ; 环境影响 ; 生态后果 ; 社会经济影响
英文关键词	water diversion ofHongqi River natural law environmental effect ecological consequence socioeconomic effect
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	ENGINEERING MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向	Engineering
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6238722
来源机构	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/238905
作者单位	1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101, 中国; 2.中国科学报, 北京 100864, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	杨勤业,景可,徐建辉. 质疑:红旗河调水功能的可行性[J]. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2018,33(5):893-898.
APA	杨勤业,景可,&徐建辉.(2018).质疑:红旗河调水功能的可行性.自然资源学报,33(5),893-898.
MLA	杨勤业,et al."质疑:红旗河调水功能的可行性".自然资源学报 33.5(2018):893-898.