干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 基于CMIP5模式的黑河流域潜在蒸散量预估

Arid

	基于CMIP5模式的黑河流域潜在蒸散量预估
其他题名	Prediction and Trend of Future Potential Evapotranspiration in the Heihe River Basin Based on CMIP5Models
	祁晓凡 1; 李文鹏 2; 李海涛 2
来源期刊	中国沙漠
ISSN	1000-694X
出版年	2018
卷号	38 期号:4 页码:849-857
中文摘要	蒸散发是干旱内陆河流域水资源的主要耗散途径。预估黑河流域未来潜在蒸散量(ET_0)可为气候变化条件下流域水资源的优化管理提供基础数据支撑。使用19602014年黑河流域气象数据,采用FAO-56Penman- Monteith公式计算流域潜在蒸散量;基于同期NCEP(美国环境预报中心)再分析资料及20062100年CMIP5中CNRM-CM5模式的RCP4.5、RCP8.5路径预测数据,经统计降尺度模拟与偏差校正,预估了流域未来潜在蒸散量;通过旋转经验正交函数将流域各划分为3个子区,进行子区及全流域Mann-Kendall未来趋势分析。结果显示:(1)NCEP再分析资料与流域潜在蒸散量建立的逐步回归降尺度模型模拟效果好,经CNRM-CM5模式模拟及偏差校正,适宜于预估黑河流域未来潜在蒸散量。(2)预估RCP4.5路径流域20212050年、20712100年年均潜在蒸散量较19712000年分别增加3.49%、6.11%,RCP8.5路径分别增加4.64%、10.07%,RCP8.5路径增幅高于RCP4.5路径。(3)利用旋转经验正交函数可将两种路径流域未来蒸散量划分为3个子区,RCP4.5、RCP8.5路径黑河流域Ⅰ区潜在蒸散量各为不显著、显著的下降趋势,两种路径下Ⅱ区、Ⅲ区及全流域均为显著上升趋势。
英文摘要	Evapotranspiration is the main dissipation of water resources in arid inland river basin.Future potential evapotranspiration (ET_0)prediction can provide basic data for water resources optimization and management under climate change in the Heihe River Basin (HRB).Three processes could be classified in this study.Firstly,ET_0 was calculated by FAO-56 Penman-Monteith equation based on metrological data from 1960to 2014in HRB.Secondly,future ET_0was predicted by statistical downscaling and deviation regulation based on NCEP reanalysis data from1960to 2014,and CMIP5 CNRM-CM5 model from2006to 2100 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways.Finally,three subareas were divided by rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF)and future trends were analyzed by Mann-Kendall tests for the three subareas and whole HRB.The conclusions showed that:(1)The stepwise regression statistical downscaling models built by NCEP reanalysis data and calculated ET_0from1960to 2014 were suitable for predicting future ET_0of HRB by CNRM-CM5 model simulation and deviation regulation.(2)Annual average ET_0of 20212050,20712100 would increase 3.49%,6.11%than that of 19712000separately under RCP4.5 pathway,while the percentage were 4.64%,10.07% under RCP8.5 pathway.The increasing amplitude of RCP8.5 was greater than that of RCP4.5.(3)Three subareas of future ET_0 were divided by REOF under both pathways.Insignificantly decreasing trend was detected for area I under RCP4.5 pathway,while the trend under RCP8.5 pathway was significant.Significantly increasing trends were detected for area II,III and whole HRB under both pathways.
中文关键词	蒸散 ; 统计降尺度 ; 气候变化 ; 浓度路径 ; 参考作物蒸散量
英文关键词	CMIP5 evapotranspiration CMIP5 statistical downscaling climate change concentration pathways reference crop evapotranspiration
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向	Geology
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6316092
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/238787
作者单位	1.中国地质调查局水文地质环境地质调查中心;;中国地质环境监测院;;中国地质大学(北京)水资源与环境学院, ;;;;, 保定;;;;, 河北;;北京;;北京 071051;;100081;;100083, 中国; 2.中国地质环境监测院, 北京 100081, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	祁晓凡,李文鹏,李海涛. 基于CMIP5模式的黑河流域潜在蒸散量预估[J],2018,38(4):849-857.
APA	祁晓凡,李文鹏,&李海涛.(2018).基于CMIP5模式的黑河流域潜在蒸散量预估.中国沙漠,38(4),849-857.
MLA	祁晓凡,et al."基于CMIP5模式的黑河流域潜在蒸散量预估".中国沙漠 38.4(2018):849-857.