干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 基于模糊优选和可信性的农业水资源多目标优化配置模型

Arid

	基于模糊优选和可信性的农业水资源多目标优化配置模型
其他题名	A multi-objective optimization model for agricultural water resources based on fuzzy optimal selection and credibility
	张珊 1; 谭倩 1; 蔡宴朋 2; 张同 1; 张田媛 1
来源期刊	南水北调与水利科技
ISSN	1672-1683
出版年	2018
卷号	16 期号:3 页码:79-85
中文摘要	干旱半干旱流域内社会、经济和生态问题多是由水资源匮乏或管理不当导致的,因此寻求有效的水资源管理方法至关重要。针对农业水资源配置过程的多目标性和不确定性问题,建立了一个多目标模糊可信性优化模型(MFCP)。该模型不仅通过定量分析不同目标在农业发展中的权重,对决策变量的综合效益进行模糊优选,还基于模糊可信理论处理了模糊参数。所开发的MFCP模型应用于甘肃省武威市民勤灌区进行实证研究,构建了以经济、生态和社会效益为目标、以水土资源自然禀赋限制等为约束的水资源优化配置模型。结果表明,可以通过减小玉米和葵花种植面积、增大瓜类和蔬菜的面积达到区域综合效益最优。以2015年为例,与优化前现状相比,优化后的方案在减少11.1%的种植总面积的情况下,能节约水量12.6%、提高经济收益13.8%。
英文摘要	Many economic,social and ecological problems in arid and semi-arid watersheds can be attributed to the scarcity and mismanagement of water resources.Therefore,it is extremely important to seek effective water resources management methods. In this research,a multi-objective fuzzy credibility programming(MFCP)model was developed for supporting agricultural water resources management.This model can conduct fuzzy optimal selection of the comprehensive benefits of the decision-making variables by quantitatively analyzing the weights of different objectives in agricultural development.It can also deal with fuzzy parameters based on the fuzzy credibility theory.The MFCP model was applied to Minqin County in Wuwei city,Gansu province. An optimization model for water resources was established with economic,ecological,and social benefits as the objectives, with the water and land resources endowment as physical restraints.Results showed that the comprehensive benefits of this region could be optimized by reducing the planting area of corns and sunflowers and increasing the area of melons and vegetables. Compared with the actual situation in 2015,the optimized scheme could save 12.6% water resources and increase economic revenue by 13.8%,while reducing the total planting area by 11.1%.
中文关键词	资源利用 ; 作物种植结构 ; 多目标优化 ; 模糊定权 ; 模糊可信性
英文关键词	resource utilization crop planting structure multi-objective optimization fuzzy weighting fuzzy credibility
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	ENGINEERING MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向	Engineering
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6271934
来源机构	北京师范大学 ; 中国农业大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/237944
作者单位	1.中国农业大学水利与土木工程学院, 北京 100081, 中国; 2.北京师范大学环境学院, 北京 100875, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	张珊,谭倩,蔡宴朋,等. 基于模糊优选和可信性的农业水资源多目标优化配置模型[J]. 北京师范大学, 中国农业大学,2018,16(3):79-85.
APA	张珊,谭倩,蔡宴朋,张同,&张田媛.(2018).基于模糊优选和可信性的农业水资源多目标优化配置模型.南水北调与水利科技,16(3),79-85.
MLA	张珊,et al."基于模糊优选和可信性的农业水资源多目标优化配置模型".南水北调与水利科技 16.3(2018):79-85.