干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 气候变化及人类活动对蒙古沙拐枣分布格局的影响

Arid

	气候变化及人类活动对蒙古沙拐枣分布格局的影响
其他题名	Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Distribution Pattern of Calligonum mongolicum Turcz
	塞依丁·海米提 1; 努尔巴依·阿布都沙力克 1; 李雪萍 1; 邵华 2; 阿尔曼·解思斯 1; 阿腾古丽 1
来源期刊	干旱区研究
ISSN	1001-4675
出版年	2018
卷号	35 期号:6 页码:1450-1458
中文摘要	蒙古沙拐枣(Calligonum mongolicum Turcz.)是中国荒漠植被的重要建群种,也是人工固沙造林的优选种。为了阐明气候变化及人类活动对其分布格局的影响,以119个蒙古沙拐枣地理分布信息和24个环境变量为基础,结合CMIP5的缩减全球模型数据,应用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS空间分析技术,分别构建不同气候情景及人类活动干扰下的蒙古沙拐枣适宜生境预测模型,定量展示未来不同气候变化情景(RCP2.6,RCP 4.5,RCP 8.5)和人类活动干扰下蒙古沙拐枣在我国的分布格局变化。结果表明:训练集的AUC值为0.958,测试集的AUC值为0.951,MaxEnt模型的预测结果可靠;影响蒙古沙拐枣分布的主要气候因素是降水量和海拔;人类活动干扰下蒙古沙拐枣的适生比例由13.04%下降到9.57%,蒙古沙拐枣的繁殖栖息与人类活动成负相关。当前气候条件下蒙古沙拐枣总适生面积比例为13.04%,在RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5三种情景下至2050s,预测的总适生面积比例为13.36%、 13.18%和14.78%;至2070s,预测的总适生面积为13.39%、12.76%和12.71%,适生范围及面积变化趋势各有差异,各级适生区面积及总适生面积有不同程度的增减,且在高浓度排放情景(RCP8.5)下响应最为明显。
英文摘要	Calligonum mongolicum Turcz.is an important species of vegetation in desert,and is also a preferred species for artificial sand-fixation and afforestation.This study was based on the geographical distribution of 119 geographical distribution data of C.mongolicum and 24 environmental variables.The effects of climate change and human activities on the distribution pattern of C.mongolicum were elucidated using the CMIP5 reduction global model data.The MaxEnt model and ArcGIS spatial analysis means were used to develop the models of predicting suitable habitats of C.mongolicum under different climatic conditions and human activities so as to quantitatively demonstrate the different climate change scenarios (RCP2.6,RCP 4.5,RCP 8.5) and the change of distribution pattern of C.mongolicum in China under climate change.The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the model was relatively high (the AUC values of the training data set and the test data set were 0.958 and 0.951 respectively).The main climatic factors affecting the distribution of C.mongolicum were precipitation,topographical factors and elevation,and the disturbance of human activities made the suitable proportion of C.mongolicum decrease from 13.04% to 9.57%.The breeding habitat of C.mongolicum was negatively correlated with human activities.Under current climatic conditions,the proportions of total suitable area of C.mongolicum was 13.04%;in the three scenarios of RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,the predicted proportions of total adaptive area would be 13.36%,13.18% and 14.78% up to the 2050s,and they would be 13.39%,12.76% and 12.71% up to the 2070s.The change of scope and area of adaptation is different.
中文关键词	蒙古沙拐枣(Calligonum mongolicum Turcz.) ; 气候变化 ; 人类活动 ; 分布格局 ; 中国
英文关键词	Calligonum mongolicum Turcz. climate change human activity distribution pattern China
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	PLANT SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Plant Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6372470
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 ; 新疆大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/237690
作者单位	1.新疆大学资源与环境科学学院;;绿洲生态教育部重点实验室, ;;绿洲生态教育部重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐;;乌鲁木齐, 新疆;;新疆 830046;;830046, 中国; 2.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830011, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	塞依丁·海米提,努尔巴依·阿布都沙力克,李雪萍,等. 气候变化及人类活动对蒙古沙拐枣分布格局的影响[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 新疆大学,2018,35(6):1450-1458.
APA	塞依丁·海米提,努尔巴依·阿布都沙力克,李雪萍,邵华,阿尔曼·解思斯,&阿腾古丽.(2018).气候变化及人类活动对蒙古沙拐枣分布格局的影响.干旱区研究,35(6),1450-1458.
MLA	塞依丁·海米提,et al."气候变化及人类活动对蒙古沙拐枣分布格局的影响".干旱区研究 35.6(2018):1450-1458.