干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 叶尔羌河平原绿洲气候变化对粮食生产的影响

Arid

	叶尔羌河平原绿洲气候变化对粮食生产的影响
其他题名	Effects of Climate Change on Grain Production in Plain Oasis in the Yarkant River Basin
	张雪琪; 满苏尔·沙比提; 马国飞
来源期刊	干旱区研究
ISSN	1001-4675
出版年	2018
卷号	35 期号:3 页码:705-712
中文摘要	为分析叶尔羌河流域粮食生产状况及其对气候变化的响应,利用气象、农业数据,结合线性趋势、累积距平、突变分析等方法,分析近60多年来研究区的气候变化特征及其对农业气候资源、粮食播种面积、粮食单产的影响,并构建多元线性回归方程模拟预测未来粮食产量的变化。结果表明: ①近60多年来研究区表现出明显的暖湿化趋势。气温增长倾向率为0.24 ℃·(10a)~(-1) (P < 0.01),降水量增湿倾向率为4.49 mm·(10a)~(-1) (P < 0.05),日照时数呈减小趋势,倾向率为21.06 h·(10a)~(-1)。气温在1996年发生突变,降水量、日照时数未出现明显突变点。②随着气候变暖,近60多年≥10 ℃积温持续时间延长了19 d,负积温持续时间缩短了8 d。③除负积温外,粮食产量与气温、日照时数、≥10 ℃积温、播种面积及单产、化肥施用量呈正相关。④多元回归模型显示,在不考虑其他要素的前提下,引入的7个自变量因子可以解释粮食产量变异的99.70%。气候变化在一定程度上有利于粮食播种面积的扩大和单产的提高。
英文摘要	In order to analyze the grain production situation in the study area and its response to climate change, the meteorological and agricultural data were used to analyze the climate change in recent 60 years and its effect on agricultural climate resources, sown area and per unit area yield with the linear trend,cumulative anomaly and mutation method,and a multiple linear regression equation was developed to predict the future changes in grain yield for guiding scientific farming and better serving the agricultural ecosystem. The results are as follows: ① Over the past 60 years,an obvious warming-wetting trend occurred in the study area. The temperature and precipitation increase rates were 0.24 ℃·(10a)~(-1) (P < 0.01) and 4.49 mm·(10a)~(-1) (P < 0.05) respectively,but the sunshine duration decreased with a decrease rate of 21.06 h·(10a)~(-1) . The temperature mutation occurred in 1996,but there were no obvious mutations in precipitation and sunshine duration; ② With climate warming, the duration of cumulative temperature ≥10 ℃ increased by 19 d,but that of negative one shortened by 8 d; ③ In addition to the negative cumulative temperature, the grain yield was positively correlated with air temperature, sunshine duration,cumulative temperature ≥10 ℃, sown area,per unit area yield and applying quantity of chemical fertilizer; ④ The multiple regression model revealed that 7 independent variable factors could be used to explain the 99.70% grain yield variation without considering other factors. Climate change is conducive to expanding grain sown area and increasing per unit area yield to a certain extent.
中文关键词	气候变化 ; 时序变化 ; 粮食产量 ; 平原绿洲 ; 叶尔羌河 ; 新疆
英文关键词	climate change temporal variation grain yield plain oasis Yarkant River Basin Xinjiang
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6245071
来源机构	新疆师范大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/237658
作者单位	新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830054, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	张雪琪,满苏尔·沙比提,马国飞. 叶尔羌河平原绿洲气候变化对粮食生产的影响[J]. 新疆师范大学,2018,35(3):705-712.
APA	张雪琪,满苏尔·沙比提,&马国飞.(2018).叶尔羌河平原绿洲气候变化对粮食生产的影响.干旱区研究,35(3),705-712.
MLA	张雪琪,et al."叶尔羌河平原绿洲气候变化对粮食生产的影响".干旱区研究 35.3(2018):705-712.