干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 克拉玛依市冬季飞机人工增雪作业效果统计分析

Arid

	克拉玛依市冬季飞机人工增雪作业效果统计分析
其他题名	Statistical analysis of effect of aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in winter at Karamay
	李斌 1; 郑博华 1; 兰文杰 2; 杨琳 2
来源期刊	干旱区地理
ISSN	1000-6060
出版年	2018
卷号	41 期号:4 页码:686-692
中文摘要	利用克拉玛依区气象站19572016年历年12月降水量观测资料,运用序列检验、不成对秩和检验以及t-检验法等统计学方法,对开展冬季飞机人工增雪作业前历史期31 a和作业期29 a的年12月降水量作为统计变量,进行系统性差异分析。结果表明:开展冬季飞机人工增雪作业后克拉玛依市冬季12月降水量明显增加,降水量平均值增加了2 mm。运用非参数性不成对秩和检验显著性水平达到0.025,参数性t-检验显著性水平也接近0.025。选取统计显著性水平0.1置信区间,计算得,冬季开展飞机人工增雪作业后,克拉玛依市平均年12月降水量绝对增加值为1.15 mm,相对增加率为24.5 %。从而得出:开展冬季飞机人工增雪作业后,克拉玛依市冬季降水量有了明显增加。
英文摘要	In order to objectively evaluate the effect of the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in winter in Karamay,Xinjiang,China,it is need to analyze the systematic significance of snowfall enhancement. In this paper,utilizing the sequence test,unpaired rank sum test and t-test of statistical methods,the systematic differences of annual precipitation in December of the former historical period 31 a and the latter period 29 a of the carrying out the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement are analyzed in Karamay,with annual precipitation data of Karamay Weather Station in December from 19572016,as a beginning to carry out the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in 1988. The results show that the precipitation in December in Karamay was significantly increased in December after the operation of the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement,regardless of the maximum,minimum and average value. It added 2.3 mm,1.1 mm and 2.02 mm respectively. In particular,the minimum rainfall period is 12 times that of the historical period. This would play a positive role in alleviating the shortage of water resources. The inspection significance level of non-parameter unpaired rank sum test is 0.025,and the inspection significance level of parametric t-test is also close to 0.025. According to the calculation,the absolute increase of the precipitation in Karamay in December is 1.15 mm,and the relative enhancive rate is 24.5% after carrying out the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in winter in Karamay when the statistical significant level alpha = 0.1 is chosen. Therefore, through carrying out the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in winter,it is significant for the precipitation enhancement in Karamay,it has a certain effect on the local tense production and domestic water consumption in arid areas. Remarkable social and economic benefits. This paper makes a reasonable utility of statistical methods to analyze the effects of aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in the winter in Karamay,and concludes the qualitative conclusions and the quantitative results. It is of some guiding significance to design and evaluate the application of aircraft artificial precipitation enhancement in science.
中文关键词	飞机人工增雪 ; 作业效果 ; 统计分析
英文关键词	aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement effect statistical analysis
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6312494
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/237601
作者单位	1.新疆维吾尔自治区人工影响天气办公室, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830002, 中国; 2.克拉玛依市气象局, 克拉玛依, 新疆 834000, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	李斌,郑博华,兰文杰,等. 克拉玛依市冬季飞机人工增雪作业效果统计分析[J],2018,41(4):686-692.
APA	李斌,郑博华,兰文杰,&杨琳.(2018).克拉玛依市冬季飞机人工增雪作业效果统计分析.干旱区地理,41(4),686-692.
MLA	李斌,et al."克拉玛依市冬季飞机人工增雪作业效果统计分析".干旱区地理 41.4(2018):686-692.