干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 基于两阶段随机规划方法的绿洲水资源优化配置

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	基于两阶段随机规划方法的绿洲水资源优化配置
其他题名	Study on the optimal allocation of oasis water resources based on the two-stages stochastic programming method
	申梦阳 1; 赵建平 1; 桂东伟 2; 冯新龙 1
来源期刊	干旱地区农业研究
ISSN	1000-7601
出版年	2018
卷号	36 期号:4 页码:233-238,245
中文摘要	选取塔里木盆地南缘和田地区策勒绿洲作为典型研究区,以当前绿洲种植的核桃、红枣及石榴经济林种为重点研究对象,针对绿洲水资源灌溉系统中的不确定性和复杂性,引入概率密度函数和离散区间方法,构建区间两阶段模糊随机规划模型,对各经济林种在各灌季的配水目标进行优化,模拟分析不同林种在不同灌季的最优配置水量。结果表明:灌溉主要集中在夏季与秋季;在策勒河来水量不确定时,春季依然需要少部分水量进行灌溉,应优先灌溉红枣和石榴;夏秋时,主要对红枣与核桃灌溉,同时对石榴的灌溉面积进行动态调节,获得种植业最大收益,系统收益区间为[0.6710~8,1.3210~8]元。通过典型案例运用分析,显示该模型不仅充分考虑到不确定性因素对系统收益的影响,风险进行权衡并以区间形式给出优化结果从而获得较为科学的决策方案。
英文摘要	This research selected Cele Oasis in Hotan area located Southern margin of Tarim Basinas a typical study region,and the walnut, jujube and pomegranate as the main study objects,aimed at the uncertainty and complexity of the oasis water resources irrigation system,introduced the probability density function and the discrete interval method,structured the interval two-stages fuzzy stochastic programming model,carried out the optimization for the water allocation targets of diverse economic forest speciesin each irrigation season,simulated and analyzed the optimal water allocation for diverse forest species in different irrigation seasons. The research results showed that: The irrigation was mainly concentrated in summer and autumn.When the intake water volume in Cele River was uncertain, the jujube and pomegranate should be preferentially irrigated in spring; the jujube and walnut should be irrigated mainlyin summer and autumn,at the same time the irrigation area of pomegranate should be dynamically adjusted to obtain the maximal incomes by planting,the intervalwas [0.6710~8 to 1.3210~8]yuan. Through the typical case analysis,this model not only can befully taken into account the impact of uncertain factors to the system incomes, but also the economic benefits and punishment risk can be balanced,also the optimal results by the form of interval can be given out,thereby the most scientific decision making scheme can be obtained and that can be effectively applied into the optimal allocation and management of oasis water resources.
中文关键词	绿洲 ; 水资源 ; 动态灌溉 ; 不确定分析 ; 区间规划
英文关键词	oasis water resources dynamic irrigation uncertainty analysis interval programming
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	ENGINEERING MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向	Engineering
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6301993
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 ; 新疆大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/237560
作者单位	1.新疆大学数学与系统科学学院, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830046, 中国; 2.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 新疆策勒荒漠草地生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830011, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	申梦阳,赵建平,桂东伟,等. 基于两阶段随机规划方法的绿洲水资源优化配置[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 新疆大学,2018,36(4):233-238,245.
APA	申梦阳,赵建平,桂东伟,&冯新龙.(2018).基于两阶段随机规划方法的绿洲水资源优化配置.干旱地区农业研究,36(4),233-238,245.
MLA	申梦阳,et al."基于两阶段随机规划方法的绿洲水资源优化配置".干旱地区农业研究 36.4(2018):233-238,245.