干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 一带一路陆域地理格局与环境变化风险

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	一带一路陆域地理格局与环境变化风险
其他题名	Geographical patterns and environmental change risks in terrestrial areas of the Belt and Road
	吴绍洪 1; 刘路路 1; 刘燕华 1; 高江波 2; 戴尔阜 1; 冯爱青 3
来源期刊	地理学报
ISSN	0375-5444
出版年	2018
卷号	73 期号:7 页码:1214-1225
中文摘要	一带一路建设是中国在新时期推动国际合作共赢的倡议,旨在打造绿色、健康、智力、和平丝绸之路,保障一带一路沿线各国人民共同发展.系统分析一带一路沿线国家环境特征、演化趋势与未来风险格局,是一带一路建设的科学基础.应用遥感监测、统计资料,探究一带一路陆域气候、地形、土壤、水文、植被环境要素空间分布特征和时空差异;依据经典综合自然区划的方法论,将一带一路陆域划分为中东欧寒冷湿润区、蒙俄寒冷干旱区、中亚西亚干旱区、东南亚温暖湿润区、巴基斯坦干旱区、孟印缅温暖湿润区、中国东部季风区、中国西北干旱区和青藏高原区等9个区域.结合模型模拟、情景预估等技术手段,将自然灾害损失评估方法论用于预估未来30年高温热浪、干旱和洪涝等突发性极端事件的灾害风险,以趋势基线对比方法预估宏观生态系统、粮食生产等渐变事件的风险.结果显示,亚欧大陆西部将是暖干趋势;青藏高原两侧区域高温热浪高风险;中东欧寒冷湿润区东部干旱高风险;孟印缅温暖湿润区和中国东部季风区洪涝高风险;荒漠边缘区域为生态脆弱高风险区;中低纬区域为粮食减产高风险区.
英文摘要	Construction of the Belt and Road, an advocacy of China to promote win- win international cooperation in the new era, aims at building green, healthy, intellectual and peaceful Silk Road and ensuring joint development with the people of the countries along the Belt and Road. Systematic analysis on environmental characteristics, evolutionary tendency and future risk pattern is a scientific fundamental of sustainable development for the construction. Based on remote sensing monitoring and statistical analysis, this paper studies spatial- temporal characteristics of climate, topography, soil, hydrology, vegetation cover and production of terrestrial ecosystems. Taking the methodology of the classical integrated natural regionalization, the region is delineated into 9 sub- regions: Central and Eastern Europe, Mongolia and Russia, Central and Western Asia, Southeastern Asia, Pakistan, Bangladesh- India- Myanmar, Eastern China, Northwestern China and Tibetan Plateau. By combining modeling simulation with scenario projections, natural disaster assessment methodology is used to assess the risk of abrupt extreme events such as heat waves, droughts and floods in the next 30 years. And trend-baseline comparison method is applied to assess the risk of gradual change events in macro- ecosystems, food production, etc. Results show that, on the basis of the regional framework, the western Eurasia would show a warming trend; both sides of Tibetan Plateau are in high temperature and heat waves risk; cold- wet region of central and eastern Europe in high drought risk; monsoon area of Bangladesh, India and Myanmar as well as eastern China in high risk of flooding; the desert margin areas in high ecological fragile risk; the middle and low latitude areas in high risk of grain production.
中文关键词	一带一路 ; 地理格局 ; 环境变化 ; 风险
英文关键词	the Belt and Road geographical patterns environmental change risks
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向	Geology
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6278864
来源机构	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/237420
作者单位	1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;;中国科学院大学, 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室;;, ;;, 北京;;北京 100101;;100049, 中国; 2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101, 中国; 3.中国气象局国家气候中心, 北京 100081, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	吴绍洪,刘路路,刘燕华,等. 一带一路陆域地理格局与环境变化风险[J]. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2018,73(7):1214-1225.
APA	吴绍洪,刘路路,刘燕华,高江波,戴尔阜,&冯爱青.(2018).一带一路陆域地理格局与环境变化风险.地理学报,73(7),1214-1225.
MLA	吴绍洪,et al."一带一路陆域地理格局与环境变化风险".地理学报 73.7(2018):1214-1225.