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	GBGWR模型在降水量空间分布模拟中的应用
其他题名	Application of GBGWR Model in Spatial Distribution Simulation of Precipitation
	邓悦 1; 刘洋 2; 刘纪平 1; 徐胜华 1; 罗安 1
来源期刊	测绘通报
ISSN	0494-0911
出版年	2018
期号	3 页码:32-37,42
中文摘要	近年来,我国大部分地区屡遭洪涝与干旱两种自然灾害侵袭,对重洪涝干旱区域进行空间插值具有重要的意义。针对传统地理加权回归(GWR)模型建模过程中模型识别和参数估计易受观测值异常点影响的问题,本文提出了一种基于吉布斯采样的贝叶斯地理加权回归(GBGWR)方法。运用基于吉布斯采样的马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗贝叶斯方法,估计地理加权回归模型参数,通过平滑函数降低观测值中异常点位数据,最后对湖南省19852015年35个观测站点的降水观测数据进行了空间分布模拟。试验结果表明,本文提出的方法相较于GWR模型性能提高了19.8%,相较于BGWR模型性能提高了8.2%,该方法可以有效降低异常值和弱数据对回归结果的影响,能够更加真实地模拟湖南省降水量的空间分布。
英文摘要	In recent years,most parts of China were repeatedly attacked by natural disasters, such as floods and droughts.Therefore, it is of great significance to carry out spatial modeling of heavy flood and arid areas.Aiming at the problem that the model recognition and parameter estimation of the geographic weighted regression (GWR) model are easy to be affected by the observed anomalies,a Bayesian geographic weighted regression (GBGWR) method based on Gibbs sampling is developed to solve the problem. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian method based on Gibbs sampling is used to estimate the parameters of the GWR model, and the anomalous data of the observed values are reduced by the smoothing function.Finally, the precipitation data of 35 observation sites in Hunan province from 1985 to 2015 were simulated.The experimental results show that the performance of this method is 19.8% higher than the GWR model, and is 8.2% higher than the BGWR model.It is proved that the method can effectively reduce the influence of the abnormal value and theweak dataon the regression result.More realistic simulation of the spatial distribution of precipitation in Hunan Province.
中文关键词	吉布斯采样 ; 地理加权回归 ; 贝叶斯地理加权回归 ; 湖南省 ; 降水量空间分布模拟
英文关键词	Gibbs sampling geographic weighted regression BGWR Hunan province precipitation simulation
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向	Geology
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6204746
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/237385
作者单位	1.中国测绘科学研究院, 北京 100830, 中国; 2.中南大学地理信息系, 长沙, 湖南 410083, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	邓悦,刘洋,刘纪平,等. GBGWR模型在降水量空间分布模拟中的应用[J],2018(3):32-37,42.
APA	邓悦,刘洋,刘纪平,徐胜华,&罗安.(2018).GBGWR模型在降水量空间分布模拟中的应用.测绘通报(3),32-37,42.
MLA	邓悦,et al."GBGWR模型在降水量空间分布模拟中的应用".测绘通报 .3(2018):32-37,42.