干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 中国谷子潜在地理分布的多模型比较

Arid

	中国谷子潜在地理分布的多模型比较
其他题名	Comparison of the potential geographical distribution of foxtail millet (Setaria italica) predicted by different models
	高蓓 1; 胡凝 1; 郭彦龙 2; 顾蔚 2; 邹继业 3
来源期刊	应用生态学报
ISSN	1001-9332
出版年	2017
卷号	28 期号:10 页码:3331-3340
中文摘要	谷子是中国干旱和半干旱区主要的粮食作物之一.它耐旱、耐瘠薄、抗逆性强、适应性广,是未来应对干旱形势的重要战略储备作物.本文基于谷子的157个地理分布点数据,利用中国谷子产量与环境指标的相关性分析,选出10个气候指标、7个土壤指标和3个地形指标,采用MaxEnt、EMFA、RF和GAM共4个物种分布模型,分析中国谷子的潜在适宜性分布.结果表明: 4种模型均可成功模拟谷子的潜在地理分布,其中,MaxEnt模型的模拟效果最好.选用的环境指标中,水热条件对谷子生长最敏感.模型结果结合ArcGIS空间分析模块的结果表明,中国谷子的潜在适宜生长区(最适宜区和适宜区)总面积为55.68*10~4 km~2,远远大于当前谷子的实际种植面积,主要集中在东北地区的东北平原、长白山以南与牡丹江流域,华北地区的淮河以北,华中地区汉江以东与大别山以北,西北地区的黄土高原、鄂尔多斯高原南部、祁连山脉东部、天山山脉东部与阿尔泰山脉,西南地区的重庆以北和贵州西部局地区域.
英文摘要	Foxtail millet is one of the main food crops in arid and semi-arid areas of China. Due to its strong anti-adversity,wide adaptability and resistance against drought and barren,the foxtail millet is treated as an important strategic crop reserve for the future drought situation. In this study, data from 157 geographical distributions were used to choose 10 climatic indices,7 soil indices and 3 topographical indices,which were based on the relationship between the foxtail millet production and the environmental factors. Four species distribution models,including maximum entropy model (MaxEnt),ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA),random forest (RF) and generalized additive model (GAM),were applied to analyze the potential geographic distribution of foxtail millet in China. The results showed that all four models did a good job in simulating the potential geographic distribution for foxtail millet and the MaxEnt model was the best one. Precipitation and temperature were most sensitive to the distribution of foxtail millet among all selected environmental factors. The outputs of models,together with the ArcGIS spatial analyst module,displayed that the total potential suitable growing regions for the foxtail millet,including the highly and moderately suitable growing regions,occupied 55.68*10~4 km~2,which were much larger than the actual foxtail millet growing area. The potential suitable growing regions were mainly located in northeast China,including the Northeast Plain,south of Changbai Mountain and Mudanjiang River basin,north China,including north of the Huaihe River,central China,including east of Hanjiang River and north of Dabie Mountains,northwest China,including Loess Plateau,the southern Ordos Plateau,the eastern Qilian Mountains,the eastern Tianshan Mountains and the Altai Mountains,and southwest China, including north of Chongqing and the western Guizhou Province.
中文关键词	谷子 ; 物种分布模型 ; 潜在地理分布
英文关键词	ArcGIS foxtail millet species distribution model ArcGIS potential geographical distribution
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	AGRONOMY
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6085129
来源机构	陕西师范大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/236917
作者单位	1.南京信息工程大学应用气象学院, 江苏省农业气象重点实验室, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国; 2.陕西师范大学生命科学学院, 西北濒危药材资源开发国家工程实验室, 西安, 陕西 710062, 中国; 3.陕西省农业遥感信息中心, 西安, 陕西 710015, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	高蓓,胡凝,郭彦龙,等. 中国谷子潜在地理分布的多模型比较[J]. 陕西师范大学,2017,28(10):3331-3340.
APA	高蓓,胡凝,郭彦龙,顾蔚,&邹继业.(2017).中国谷子潜在地理分布的多模型比较.应用生态学报,28(10),3331-3340.
MLA	高蓓,et al."中国谷子潜在地理分布的多模型比较".应用生态学报 28.10(2017):3331-3340.