干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 基于参数实时优化的洪水预报系统研究以黑河干流洪水为例

Arid

	基于参数实时优化的洪水预报系统研究以黑河干流洪水为例
其他题名	Real-time parameter optimization-based study on flood forecast system A case study on Heihe River flood
	强德霞 1; 赵彦博 2; 南卓铜 3; 吴小波 2
来源期刊	水利水电技术
ISSN	1000-0860
出版年	2017
卷号	48 期号:4 页码:13-17,24
中文摘要	及时准确的洪水预报系统可为防洪减灾提供重要的依据,针对目前洪水预报系统主要侧重于单模型研究、模型参数固定不变、长历时预报误差累积等问题,建立了具有多模型选择及参数优化功能的洪水实时预报系统,通过实时改进模型参数来改善预报效果。应用于黑河干流两场次洪水预报的结果表明,各预报模型在每场次洪水中的预报精度不同,且在参数优化后精度都相应地提高。由精度可知,TOPMODEL模型更适合该流域洪水预报,其精度由0.920 9、0.910 3提高到0.987 9、0.958 9。实验证明该系统在干旱半干旱区洪水预报中具有应用前景。
英文摘要	Timely and accurate flood forecasting system can provide important basis for flood control and disaster mitigation. Aiming at problems,i. e. the flood forecast system mainly focuses on the research of single model,the model parameters are fixed, the accumulation of long-term forecasting error,etc. at present,a real-time flood forecast system with the functions of multimodel selection,parameter optimization and improvement of forecasting effect through real-time improvement of the model parameter is established herein. The result from the application of this model to the forecasts of two flood events occurred at the main stream of Heihe River shows that the accuracies of the forecasts of both the flood events are different from each forecasting model, which are accordingly enhanced after the optimization of the parameters concerned. It is known from the accuracy that the TOPMODEL is more suitable for this river basin,of which the accuracy is increased from 0.920 9,0.910 3 to 0.987 9,0.958 9. The relevant experiment shows that the system has the application prospect for the flood forecast of the arid and semi-arid region.
中文关键词	黑河 ; 洪水实时预报系统 ; 模型库 ; 参数优化 ; 分布式水文模型 ; 降雨径流预报 ; 水文预报精度 ; 决策支持系统
英文关键词	Heihe River real-time flood forecast system model base parameter optimization distributed hydrological madel rainfall-runoff forecasting hydrological forecasting accuracy decision support system
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	ENGINEERING MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向	Engineering
CSCD记录号	CSCD:5989368
来源机构	西北师范大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/236611
作者单位	1.西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 兰州, 甘肃 730070, 中国; 2.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国; 3.南京师范大学地理科学学院, 南京, 江苏 210023, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	强德霞,赵彦博,南卓铜,等. 基于参数实时优化的洪水预报系统研究以黑河干流洪水为例[J]. 西北师范大学,2017,48(4):13-17,24.
APA	强德霞,赵彦博,南卓铜,&吴小波.(2017).基于参数实时优化的洪水预报系统研究以黑河干流洪水为例.水利水电技术,48(4),13-17,24.
MLA	强德霞,et al."基于参数实时优化的洪水预报系统研究以黑河干流洪水为例".水利水电技术 48.4(2017):13-17,24.