干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): CMIP3与CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区气温和降水的模拟能力比较

Arid

	CMIP3与CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区气温和降水的模拟能力比较
其他题名	Comparing Simulated Temperature and Precipitation of CMIP3 and CMIP5 in Arid Areas of Northwest China
	吴晶 1; 王宝鉴 1; 杨艳芬 2; 常燕 3; 陈林4 ; 杨建才 1; 刘新伟 1
来源期刊	气候变化研究进展
ISSN	1673-1719
出版年	2017
卷号	13 期号:3 页码:198-212
中文摘要	通过对15组CMIP3和CMIP5两代模式集合平均对中国西北干旱区气温和降水的模拟能力比较,发现CMIP5模式对气温和降水的模拟更接近观测值。CMIP5模式模拟年、春季、夏季、秋季平均气温的相关系数比CMIP3模式分别提升了0.15、0.13、0.24和0.02,冬季下降了0.07。CMIP5模式对西北干旱区的平均气温变化趋势的模拟效果比CMIP3有所提高,对年、春季、夏季、秋季、冬季趋势的模拟偏差比CMIP3分别减少了0.03℃/10a、0.10℃/10a、0.01℃/10a、0.06℃/10a、0.14℃/10a。对西北干旱区平均气温年、季的模拟偏差分布上,CMIP5模式的偏差均比CMIP3低1~2℃。但是天山区年、季节平均气温的模拟与整体模拟偏低情况相反,CMIP3和CMIP5分别偏高3~6℃和1~4℃,对夏季的模拟偏高最严重,分别达到6℃和4℃。CMIP5模式整体对西北干旱区降水量的模拟结果与观测值的平均相关系数与CMIP3相差不大,均不超过0.1,而且偏差仍然较大。CMIP5模式对西北干旱区的降水量的变化趋势模拟效果比CMIP3有所降低,对年、春季、夏季、秋季、冬季趋势的模拟偏差比CMIP3增加了0.67 mm/10a、0.23 mm/10a、0.51 mm/10a、0.11 mm/10a、0.14 mm/10a。CMIP5模式对年、春季、夏季、秋季和冬季的降水量模拟的均方根误差相比CMIP3分别减少77.6 mm、25.5 mm、25.0 mm、18.8 mm和13.9 mm。在空间上,CMIP5模式对年、季节降水模拟仍然偏高,但是比CMIP3有明显缓解;CMIP3和CMIP5模式对夏季天山区年降水量和夏季降水量的模拟也与大部分区域偏高的趋势明显相反,两代模式对夏季天山区的降水模拟均偏低50 mm左右。
英文摘要	The ensemble mean of simulated temperature and precipitation of CMIP5 and CMIP3 in arid areas of Northwest China was compared, the results showed that CMIP5 was more close to the observed value. Comparing with CMIP3, the correlation coefficient of CMIP5 was improved by 0.15 for year, 0.13 in spring, 0.24 in summer and 0.02 in autumn, while decreased by 0.07 in winter. CMIP5 simulated better trend of mean temperature than CMIP3 in the arid area of Northwest China, the biases reduced by 0.03℃per decade for year, 0.1℃per decade for spring, 0.01℃per decade for summer, 0.06℃per decade for autumn and 0.14℃per decade for winter, respectively. The annual and seasonal bias of CMIP5 was 1-2℃ lower than CMIP3 in the arid area of Northwest China, but temperature for both CMIP3 and CMIP5 were 3-6℃ and 1-4℃ higher than observation in Tianshan Mountains, especially in summer, which was reached to 6℃ and 4℃, respectively. Two models showed little difference in the correlation coefficient between simulated and observed precipitation, which was lower than 0.1, but the bias was still higher. The precision of precipitation trend for CMIP5 was lower than CMIP3, the biases increased by 0.67 mm per decade for year, 0.23 mm per decade for spring, 0.51 mm per decade for summer, 0.11 mm per decade for autumn, and 0.14 mm per decade for winter, respectively. The root mean square error of precipitation of CMIP5 was decreased by 77.6 mm, 25.5 mm, 25.0 mm, 18.8 mm and 13.9 mm for annual, spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively. In spatial, CMIP5 still simulated higher annual and seasonal precipitation, but was better than CMIP3. Conversely, CMIP3 and CMIP5 gave lower annual and seasonal precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains, which was 50 mm lower than the observation.
中文关键词	西北干旱区 ; 平均气温 ; 降水量 ; 模拟能力
英文关键词	CMIP3 CMIP5 the northwest arid areas CMIP3 CMIP5 average temperature precipitation simulation ability
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6000721
来源机构	西北农林科技大学 ; 中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/236367
作者单位	1.兰州中心气象台, 兰州, 甘肃 730020, 中国; 2.西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所, 黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室, 杨凌, 712100; 3.中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究所, 中国科学院寒旱区陆面过程与气候变化重点实验室, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国; 4.IPRC and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, 96822, U.S.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	吴晶,王宝鉴,杨艳芬,等. CMIP3与CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区气温和降水的模拟能力比较[J]. 西北农林科技大学, 中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,2017,13(3):198-212.
APA	吴晶.,王宝鉴.,杨艳芬.,常燕.,陈林.,...&刘新伟.(2017).CMIP3与CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区气温和降水的模拟能力比较.气候变化研究进展,13(3),198-212.
MLA	吴晶,et al."CMIP3与CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区气温和降水的模拟能力比较".气候变化研究进展 13.3(2017):198-212.