干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 东亚干旱、半干旱区夏季降水的模拟研究

Arid

	东亚干旱、半干旱区夏季降水的模拟研究
其他题名	Simulation of summer precipitation over arid and semiarid regions in East Asia
	刘俊; 季明霞
来源期刊	兰州大学学报. 自然科学版
ISSN	0455-2059
出版年	2017
卷号	53 期号:4 页码:467-480
中文摘要	将IPCC第5次评估报告国际耦合模式比较计划中的18个气候模式模拟结果与美国气候预报中心的观测资料进行对比,系统评估了18个气候模式对东亚干旱、半干旱区过去58 a(1948-2005年)夏季降水变化的模拟能力,并根据分数值的大小选取模式G1和G2进行对比分析.结果表明,G1对东亚干旱、半干旱区夏季降水变化趋势的模拟与观测资料较为一致,其中中国西北地区的降水增加,而中国东北及蒙古地区的降水表现为减少的趋势,模拟的蒙古西部地区的降水变率偏小;G2的模拟结果与观测值相差较大,尤其中国东北、西北局地及蒙古地区夏季降水的变化趋势与观测值相反.合成分析结果表明,在季风偏强年,G1模拟的夏季降水变化与观测值具有较好的一致性,即中国东北和蒙古地区降水明显偏多,但在季风偏弱年,G1模拟的夏季降水变化与观测值相比偏差较大,尤其在中国东北及蒙古地区,模拟的降水变化比观测值明显偏弱.在RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下, G1的模拟结果表明到2100年大部分东亚干旱、半干旱区夏季降水呈增多趋势,其中以中国西北南部及东北地区最为显著.
英文摘要	The simulated capability of summer precipitation was systematically evaluated using 18 models from the fifth coupled model intercomparison project during the past 58 years (1948-2005), and was compared with the observations from the Climate Prediction Center over arid and semiarid regions in East Asia. According to a comparison of 7 precise and poor models as G1 and G2 multi- model ensembles, there was a good agreement of the linear trend of summer precipitation between G1 historical simulation and the observations. The results indicated that summer precipitation decreased significantly in northeast China and Mongolian regions but increased in Northwest China and that precipitation change of G1 was a little underestimated in west Mongolia but with large differences between G2 simulation and observations. For example, the observed linear trend of summer precipitation was conversed with the simulation over Inner Mongolia and some other regions in Northern China. There was a good relationship between the anomaly precipitation of G1 simulation and the observations in strong East Asian summer monsoon years, indicating that there was obviously more precipitation in Northeast China and East Mongolia. There was a large bias between the simulations and observations in weaker East Asian summer monsoon years. The simulation with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios indicated that the linear trend of summer precipitation would increase until 2100.
中文关键词	干旱、半干旱 ; 夏季降水 ; 国际耦合模式比较计划 ; 东亚夏季风
英文关键词	arid and semiarid summer precipitation coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 East Asian summer monsoon
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6061652
来源机构	兰州大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/236249
作者单位	兰州大学大气科学学院, 半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	刘俊,季明霞. 东亚干旱、半干旱区夏季降水的模拟研究[J]. 兰州大学,2017,53(4):467-480.
APA	刘俊,&季明霞.(2017).东亚干旱、半干旱区夏季降水的模拟研究.兰州大学学报. 自然科学版,53(4),467-480.
MLA	刘俊,et al."东亚干旱、半干旱区夏季降水的模拟研究".兰州大学学报. 自然科学版 53.4(2017):467-480.