干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 作物春季播种期土壤温湿因子的分析及预测研究以内蒙古河套灌区为例

Arid

	作物春季播种期土壤温湿因子的分析及预测研究以内蒙古河套灌区为例
其他题名	Analysis and Prediction of Temperature and Humidity of Soil in Spring Sowing -Hetao Irrigation District of Inner Mongolia
	王萍; 李秀芬; 王秋京; 纪仰慧; 季生太; 赵慧颖
来源期刊	土壤通报
ISSN	0564-3945
出版年	2016
卷号	47 期号:6 页码:1314-1324
中文摘要	以改进本地作物播种期土壤含水量和耕层地温的预报服务及提升农业生产安排决策能力为目的。利用内蒙古河套灌区1980 ~ 2011年年春季和作物播种期间气温、降水、风速、地温、土壤相对湿度等资料, 采用相关分析、回归分析、 Mann- Kendall趋势检验等方法,在土壤温湿因子诊断分析基础上,建立不同层次逐日土壤温度和逐旬相对湿度预报模型。结果表明:1980年以来河套灌区大部地区春播期平均土壤相对湿度在0 ~ 10 cm、10 ~ 20 cm和20 ~ 30 cm土层均呈下降趋势,影响的主要因子依次为前一旬土壤相对湿度、当旬的平均气温和降水量;河套灌区气温及0 cm、5 cm和10 cm地温变化趋势相同,均呈现上升的趋势,影响的主要因子为平均气温和平均风速;建立了各层土壤相对湿度预测模型84个和各层地温预测模型36个,均通过信度检验(P ≤0.05);土壤相对湿度模型回代和预报检验准确率分别大于85%和80%,有的甚至超过90%;地温模型回代检验平均误差为1.9 ~ 2.3 ℃,2011、2012年预报检验平均误差为2.1 ~ 2.5 ℃。模型输出结果更能反映当地作物适宜播种期间土壤温湿匹配效果,预报精度达到了一定的水平,可用于干旱地区土壤相对湿度和地温的预报。
英文摘要	Based on the data of air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and temperature and humidity of soil during 1980 -2011 in Hetao irrigation district of Inner Mongolia, this paper analyzed temperature and humidity of soil and set up their prediction models at different soil depths using correlation analysis, regression analysis and Mann - Kendall trend test methods. The purpose was to improve the forecast capacity of temperature and humidity of soil and promote the decision of agricultural production in spring sowing. The main results were as follows: The average humidity in spring sowing was on the decline at 0 - 10 cm, 10 - 20 cm and 20 - 30 cm soil depths in most areas of Hetao Irrigation District since 1980. And the main factors were relative soil humidity in the first ten- day and the average of temperature and precipitation in the present ten- days. The same rising trend of soil temperature change was found at 0 cm, 5 cm and 10 cm and temperature and wind speed were the main factors. About 84 models of soil relative humidity and 36 models of soil temperature (at 0 cm, 5 cm, 10 cm) were built by using the data of soil humidity, temperature, precipitation and wind speed from 1980 - 2011. And all the models were through the reliability tests (P ≤0.05). The accuracies of return and prediction for soil humidity of were, respectively, more than 85% and 80%, and even than 90%. The average error of soil temperature in the return test was 1.9 - 2.3 ℃, and that in the forecast test in 2011 and 2012 was 2.1 - 2.5 ℃. The output results of the models reflected the matching effects of soil temperature and humidity in suitable sowing period and the forecast accuracy reached a certain level. They could be used to forecast soil relative humidity and temperature in arid area.
中文关键词	土壤温湿因子 ; 诊断分析 ; 预报模型 ; 河套灌区 ; 作物播种期
英文关键词	Temperature and humidity of soil Diagnostic analysis Prediction model Hetao irrigation district Crop sowing date
类型	Article
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:5993581
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/235083
作者单位	王萍, 黑龙江省气象科学研究所, 哈尔滨, 黑龙江 150030, 中国.; 李秀芬, 黑龙江省气象科学研究所, 哈尔滨, 黑龙江 150030, 中国.; 王秋京, 黑龙江省气象科学研究所, 哈尔滨, 黑龙江 150030, 中国.; 纪仰慧, 黑龙江省气象科学研究所, 哈尔滨, 黑龙江 150030, 中国.; 季生太, 黑龙江省气象科学研究所, 哈尔滨, 黑龙江 150030, 中国.; 赵慧颖, 黑龙江省气象科学研究所, 哈尔滨, 黑龙江 150030, 中国.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	王萍,李秀芬,王秋京,等. 作物春季播种期土壤温湿因子的分析及预测研究以内蒙古河套灌区为例[J],2016,47(6):1314-1324.
APA	王萍,李秀芬,王秋京,纪仰慧,季生太,&赵慧颖.(2016).作物春季播种期土壤温湿因子的分析及预测研究以内蒙古河套灌区为例.土壤通报,47(6),1314-1324.
MLA	王萍,et al."作物春季播种期土壤温湿因子的分析及预测研究以内蒙古河套灌区为例".土壤通报 47.6(2016):1314-1324.