干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 基于可拓-马尔科夫模型的贵州省生态安全预警

Arid

	基于可拓-马尔科夫模型的贵州省生态安全预警
其他题名	Early-warning Model Based on Extension and Markov for Ecological Security in Guizhou
	潘真真 1; 苏维词 2; 王建伟 3
来源期刊	山地学报
ISSN	1008-2786
出版年	2016
卷号	34 期号:5 页码:580-590
中文摘要	基于19902013年贵州省生态安全的相关数据,从压力、状态、响应三个方面构建贵州省生态安全预警指标体系,运用惩罚型变权-可拓模型对19902013年贵州省生态安全预警等级进行测度,并运用马尔科夫模型对贵州省20142020年生态安全警情进行预测。结果表明:1)贵州省19902013年生态安全等级分为:巨警、向重警转换、重警、向中警转换、中警、向轻警转换,整体呈波动上升的趋势,指示灯由红色演化为待定;2)贵州省2014-2020年生态安全预警等级为:中警和轻警,指示灯为黄色和蓝色,生态安全状况具有恶化的趋势;3)影响贵州省生态安全水平的主要因素包括人口自然增长率、农民人均纯收入、GDP增长率、石漠化面积比重、水土流失治理比例等,是今后调控的重点。研究结果可为贵州省生态安全的维护提供参考。
英文摘要	Based on the related data of ecological security in Guizhou Province from 2002 to 2012, this paper constructed an early-warning index system for Guizhou Province,China from three aspects : pressure,state and response. Testing early warning degrees of ecological security in Guizhou Province from 1990 to 2013 by using the method of punished variable weight and extension analysis model,forecasting ecological security state in Guizhou Province from 2014 to 2020 by the Markov model. The results indicated that : 1 ) The security grade of Guizhou Province from 1990 to 2013 are divided into: Huge alarm,converting into Heavy alarm,Heavy alarm,converting into Medium alarm, Medium alarm, converting into Light alarm, Overall, the level of ecological security showed an upward trend and the indicator light turned from red",to pending". 2) The warning degree will be Medium alarm and Light alarm in Guizhou Province from 2014 to 2020,the indicator light will be Yellow" and Blue",But it has the trend of deterioration. 3) The main factors which influence the ecological security of Guizhou Province include natural population growth rate,net income of rural households,GDP growth rate,proportion of Rocky desertification, improvement rate of soil and water loss. These are focus of ecological security regulation in the future. These findings could provide a reference for ecological security maintenance for Guizhou province.
中文关键词	可拓马尔科夫模型 ; 生态安全 ; 预警模型 ; 贵州省
英文关键词	Extension and Markov model ecological security early-warning model Guizhou province
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
CSCD记录号	CSCD:5831108
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/234702
作者单位	1.重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院, 重庆 400047, 中国; 2.重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院, 重庆市三峡库区地表过程与环境遥感重点实验室, 重庆 400047, 中国; 3.(武汉)中国地质大学, 生物地质与环境地质国家重点实验室, 武汉, 湖北 430074, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	潘真真,苏维词,王建伟. 基于可拓-马尔科夫模型的贵州省生态安全预警[J],2016,34(5):580-590.
APA	潘真真,苏维词,&王建伟.(2016).基于可拓-马尔科夫模型的贵州省生态安全预警.山地学报,34(5),580-590.
MLA	潘真真,et al."基于可拓-马尔科夫模型的贵州省生态安全预警".山地学报 34.5(2016):580-590.