干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 甘肃天水近30 a气候变化对桃产量形成的影响分析

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	甘肃天水近30 a气候变化对桃产量形成的影响分析
其他题名	Impact of climate change on peach yield at Tianshui, Gansu in recent 30 years
	万梓文 1; 许彦平 2; 姚晓琳 2; 许赟恺 3
来源期刊	干旱区地理
ISSN	1000-6060
出版年	2016
卷号	39 期号:4 页码:738-746
中文摘要	采用统计学方法,利用甘肃天水1981-2011年桃单产量和相关气象资料统计分析了气候变化对桃产量形成影响,为果树生产和管理部门有效应对气候变化提供决策依据。研究表明:20世纪90年代以来天水桃树栽培区气温升高,降水减少,暖干气候特征明显,极端最高气温的显著升高是气候变暖的主要表现。气候变暖导致桃树发育进程明显加快,初春气温、仲春最高气温的快速升高和降水量的明显减少,造成桃树花芽发育-盛花期高温干旱对花蕾发育、开花坐果的危害及盛夏7月降水量的增加和7月下旬至8月上旬气温日较差的减小,对果实干物质累积、着色成熟的影响均呈明显加重趋势,7月相对较多的降水还可造成果树大量落果而减产,但仲秋10月降水量的增加不仅有利果树正常越冬,还可缓解来年春季暖干气候对果树产量形成的不利影响。
英文摘要	To effectively defend the impact of climate change on fruit trees’ growth and yield, based on peach yield in mountain area in Qin’ an County and semi arid in Maiji District and meteorological data from 1981 to 2011, and by using statistical method, impact of climate change on fruit trees production and management department were analyzed in this paper. Results show that: the average temperature rose significantly at a rate of 0.34-0.45 ℃/10 a in cultivation area in Tianshui Prfecture, Gansu Province,China since 1990s. The rising rate of the average highest temperature was significantly higher than the average temperature, which reached up to 0.57 ℃ ? (10 a)~(-1) and was the major performance of climate warming. The precipitation reduced 9%-10% in 1990s and the climate became drier. The precipitation rose from 2001 to 2010,though the average precipitation was closer to years ’ level,the uncertainty and instability increased and the amplitude became larger. Since the global warming in 1991-2010, the peach trees growth process became faster: the days from bud expansion to fruit ripe were 5-17 days ahead and growth process was shortened for 4-7 days. The temperature increase and precipitation decrease in early spring led to the ratio of precipitation/temperature in March decreased in linear at a rate of -0.039 ? a~(-1). The warm and dry climate caused by abnormal allocation of hydrothermal resources led to worse effect on bud, flowering and fruit stage. The asynchronous increase between the highest and lowest temperature in middle spring caused the daily temperature range to increase in linear at a rate of 0.50 ? (10 a)~(-1) in drought area in Weibei Region. The ratio of the product of the average temperature and atmospheric relative humidity and the highest temperature decreased in linear at a rate of 0.38 ? (10 a)~(-1). The damage of high and low temperature became more serious in flowering and bearing fruit. The precipitation in July increased 0.19-(10 a)~(-1) and 2.37· (10 a)~(-1) in the 1990s and 2000s than that in 1980s,respectively; the daily temperature range decreased 4.96-(10 a)~(-1) and 9.67 ?(10 a)~(-1) in the 1990s and 2000s than that in 1980s, respectively. The increase of precipitation and decrease of daily temperature range did more harm to the accumulation of fruit dry matter, coloring and maturity. More precipitation could even cause abscission of fruits and reduction of yield. The precipitation in October increased at a rate of 0.045 ?(10a)~(-1),which was good for trees overwintering and easing the adverse effect of warm and dry climate in the coming year on fruit yield. This research considered not only single meteorological factor, but also analyzed the change of abnormal allocation of hydrothermal resources. The conclusion basically reflected the climate change feature and its effect on fruit trees normal growth and yield, the biological significance was obvious.
中文关键词	甘肃天水 ; 气候变化 ; 桃产量 ; 形成 ; 影响分析
英文关键词	Tianshui Prefecture of Gansu Province climate change yield of peach formation impact analysis
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	ECONOMICS
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics
CSCD记录号	CSCD:5763217
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/234248
作者单位	1.南京信息工程大学滨江学院, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国; 2.甘肃省天水市气象局, 天水, 甘肃 741018, 中国; 3.甘肃天水小陇山林业局, 天水, 甘肃 741020, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	万梓文,许彦平,姚晓琳,等. 甘肃天水近30 a气候变化对桃产量形成的影响分析[J],2016,39(4):738-746.
APA	万梓文,许彦平,姚晓琳,&许赟恺.(2016).甘肃天水近30 a气候变化对桃产量形成的影响分析.干旱区地理,39(4),738-746.
MLA	万梓文,et al."甘肃天水近30 a气候变化对桃产量形成的影响分析".干旱区地理 39.4(2016):738-746.