干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 过去50年气候变化下中国潜在植被NPP的脆弱性评价

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	过去50年气候变化下中国潜在植被NPP的脆弱性评价
其他题名	NPP vulnerability of China’s potential vegetation to climate change in the past 50 years
	苑全治 1; 吴绍洪 2; 戴尔阜 2; 赵东升 2; 任平 1; 张学儒 3
来源期刊	地理学报
ISSN	0375-5444
出版年	2016
卷号	71 期号:5 页码:797-806
中文摘要	借助动态植被模型IBIS,首先模拟了过去50年(1961-2010年)气候变化下中国潜在植被NPP的动态变化,然后采用IPCC第五次评估报告选定的标准气候态时段(1986-2005年)平均气候状态作为标准年气候,并将该气候条件下的潜在植被NPP作为评价基准。通过与基准进行比较,计算每一年潜在植被NPP的波动情况,进而评价该年的气候条件是否使潜在植被不适应以及不适应的程度,最后根据过去50年的不适应次数和程度综合判断气候变化下潜在植被NPP的脆弱性。评价结果显示:在过去50年的气候变化下,天山以南的暖温带荒漠生态系统、北方温带草原生态系统以及青藏高原西部的高寒草原生态系统更容易受到气候变化的不利影响,NPP呈现出较高的脆弱性;而大部分以森林为主的生态系统则不容易受到气候变化的影响,NPP脆弱性较低,其中以常绿阔叶林和针叶林为主的生态系统NPP脆弱性更低。此外,天山以北的温带荒漠生态系统以及青藏高原中部和东部的高寒草原草甸生态系统NPP也呈现出较低的脆弱性。
英文摘要	By using the IBIS, a dynamic vegetation model, this study firstly simulated the NPP dynamics of China’s potential vegetation in the past 50 years (1961-2010). Then according to the Fifth Assessment Report by IPCC, this study used the average climate conditions during 1986- 2005 as the "standard climate", and took the NPP of the potential vegetation in this climate condition as the evaluation basis. Compared with the evaluation basis, the NPP fluctuation of each year was calculated to judge whether the potential vegetation adapts the climate change or not. Meanwhile, the degree of the inadaptability was evaluated. Finally, the NPP vulnerability of potential vegetation was evaluated by synthesizing the times and degrees of inadaptability to the climate change during the past 50 years. Results showed that: the NPP of the desert ecosystems south of the Tianshan Mountains, and the NPP of grassland ecosystems in northern China and western Tibetan Plateau were more likely to be impacted by the climate change in the study period. The NPP vulnerability of these ecosystems to climate change in the past 50 years was relatively high. The NPP of most of the forest ecosystems was not likely to be influenced by climate change. The NPP vulnerability to climate change of the evergreen broadleaved forests and coniferous forests was lower. Additionally, the NPP of the desert ecosystems north of Tianshan Mountains, and the NPP of the grassland ecosystems in the central and eastern parts of the Tibetan Plateau had lower vulnerability to climate change.
中文关键词	气候变化 ; 潜在植被 ; 脆弱性 ; 中国
英文关键词	NPP IBIS climate change potential vegetation NPP vulnerability IBIS China
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	PLANT SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Plant Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:5713484
来源机构	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/234061
作者单位	1.四川师范大学, 西南土地资源评价与监测教育部重点实验室, 成都, 四川 610068, 中国; 2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101, 中国; 3.重庆交通大学, 重庆 400074, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	苑全治,吴绍洪,戴尔阜,等. 过去50年气候变化下中国潜在植被NPP的脆弱性评价[J]. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,2016,71(5):797-806.
APA	苑全治,吴绍洪,戴尔阜,赵东升,任平,&张学儒.(2016).过去50年气候变化下中国潜在植被NPP的脆弱性评价.地理学报,71(5),797-806.
MLA	苑全治,et al."过去50年气候变化下中国潜在植被NPP的脆弱性评价".地理学报 71.5(2016):797-806.