干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 河西走廊内陆河流域极端降水特征分析

Arid

	河西走廊内陆河流域极端降水特征分析
其他题名	Characteristics of precipitation extremes for inland river basins in Hexi Corridor
	王月华; 李占玲; 赵韦
来源期刊	北京师范大学学报. 自然科学版
ISSN	0476-0301
出版年	2016
卷号	52 期号:3 页码:333-339
中文摘要	水资源是维持内陆河流域复合生态系统的重要纽带.大气降水作为流域水资源的重要来源,其时空分布及强度变化会对流域生态水文过程有着重要影响.本文以河西走廊内陆河流域19个气象站1960-2012年逐日降水资料为基础,构建了最大1 d降水量、最大连续5 d降水量和非常湿天降水总量等极端降水指标,通过采用多种极值概率分布模型探讨研究区极端降水指标在频次、强度和贡献率方面的变化,从而为分析极端降水对流域生态水文过程的影响提供科学依据.结果表明,基于GEV最优概率分布模型,得出研究区超过5年一遇的最大1 d降水量、最大连续5 d降水量、非常湿天降水总量近年来发生次数有所增加,尤其是2000年以后增加更为明显;研究区极端降水强度在2000年以后也明显增强;在极端降水量对年降水总量的贡献率方面,近年来石羊河流域总体呈现增加趋势,黑河流域上游呈现增加趋势、中游和下游以下降趋势为主,疏勒河流域上游和下游呈现增加趋势,中游则以下降趋势为主.
英文摘要	Water resources are important in maintaining the complex ecological system over inland river basins in arid areas. Precipitation is the main source for local water resources, and its temporal and spatial changes have great effect on eco-hydrological processes. The characteristics of precipitation extremes in the inland river basin have changed greatly due to global and regional warming. Based on daily precipitation data from 1960 to 2012 at 19 meteorological stations over three inland river basins in Hexi Corridor, three indicators, annual maximum precipitation for 1 day (AM1D), annual maximum precipitation for 5 days (AM5D) and total precipitation in wet days (TWD) are proposed to represent precipitation extremes in the study area. Five probability distribution models are used to analyze changes in frequency, intensity and contribution rate of precipitation extremes. GEV model is found to perform best to fit probability distribution of three indictors. AM1D, AM5D and TWD over 5-year return period have increased. Intensity of precipitation extremes has increased markedly after 2000. Contribution rate of extreme precipitation to total precipitation is increasing in the whole Shiyang River basin, the upper reach of Heihe River basin and the upper and lower reaches of Shule River basin during the past years, but decreasing in the middle and lower reaches of Heihe River basin and the middle reach of Shule River basin.
中文关键词	极端降水 ; 概率分布模型 ; 频次 ; 强度 ; 贡献率
英文关键词	precipitation extremes probability density function occurrence number intensity contribution rate
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向	Geology
CSCD记录号	CSCD:5733764
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/233917
作者单位	中国地质大学(北京)水资源与环境学院, 北京 100083, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	王月华,李占玲,赵韦. 河西走廊内陆河流域极端降水特征分析[J],2016,52(3):333-339.
APA	王月华,李占玲,&赵韦.(2016).河西走廊内陆河流域极端降水特征分析.北京师范大学学报. 自然科学版,52(3),333-339.
MLA	王月华,et al."河西走廊内陆河流域极端降水特征分析".北京师范大学学报. 自然科学版 52.3(2016):333-339.