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	近50年气候和人类活动对锡林河流域径流的影响
其他题名	Impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff yield of the Xilin River Basin over nearly 50 years
	焦玮; 朱仲元; 宋小园; 隋佳硕; 席小康; 董志兵
来源期刊	中国水土保持科学
ISSN	1672-3007
出版年	2015
卷号	13 期号:6 页码:12-19
中文摘要	气候变化和人类活动是影响河川径流变化的2大主要因素。基于1963-2011年锡林浩特水文站的实测水文数据资料,采用累积距平法(CA)对锡林河近50年径流年际变化序列的趋势进行分析,确定出2个拐点年份为1985和1999年,其中1999年为突变年,运用修正后的的累积量斜率变化率比较分析法(SCRCQ)定量计算了气候及人类活动对径流变化的贡献率。以初始研究阶段T_1(1963-1985年)为基准期,不考虑潜在蒸散量变化的影响,T_2(1986-1999年)和T_3(2000-2011年)时期的降水量减少对于径流量减少的贡献率分别为26.30%和57.36%,人类活动对于径流量减少的贡献率分别为73.70%和42.64%;如果考虑潜在蒸散量变化,T_2、T_3时段的潜在蒸散量减少对于径流量减少产生的负贡献率分别为-23.47%和-52.25%,而人类活动对锡林河流域径流变化的贡献率分别增至97.17%和94.89%。显然,人类活动是该区间锡林河流域径流量减少的最重要的驱动因素。
英文摘要	Climate change and human activities are two main factors influencing the runoff change. To some extent, climate change can lead to the spatial-temporal redistribution of water resources. The effect of climate change on river runoff yield is mainly reflected in the change of precipitation and temperature. With the increase of population, rapid development of economy and society, and the accelerated process of urbanization, a serious contradiction arise between supply and demand of water resources, and the question of water resource shortage is increasingly concerned. A prevailing thought is that research on river runoff changes should take into account the combination of climate change and human activities. In this study, Xilin River, a typical inland river basin in arid and semi-arid region of Inner Mongolia, was selected as our research object. Based on the observed data of Xilinhot Hydrological Station during 1963-2011, we used the method of cumulative anomaly (CA) to analyze the runoff sequence interannual trend of Xilin River over nearly 50 years, in order to determine the years of inflection point, i.e., 1985 and 1999. Using the revised slope change ratio of cumulative quantity (SCRCQ), we calculated quantitatively the contribution rate of the precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and human activities on runoff. With years of inflection point as a boundary, change process of cumulants of the variables was divided into three periods, 1963-1985 (T_1), 1986-1999 (T_2) and 2000-2011 (T_3). The linear regression equation was adopted to analyze the relationship between accumulated runoff and time. The slope of the linear regression equation was obtained, and then the rate of change was calculated. Compared with the benchmark stage T_1, runoff during the T_2 period decreased by 31.65%, and that during T_3 period increased by 35.75%. If not considering the effect of evapotranspiration in the area, the reduced precipitation contributed to the runoff reduction by respectively 26.30% and 57.36% respectively during the period of T_2 and T_3, and the contribution rate of human activity to the runoff reduction was 73.70% and 42.64% respectively, with the initial research phase T_1 (1963-1985) as a benchmark. On the contrary, regarding to the influence of potential evapotranspiration, the contributions of reduced potential evapotranspiration to the runoff yield change were -23.47% and -52.25% during the period of T_2 and T_3 respectively, and the contributions of human activities to the runoff yield change were increased to 97.17% and 94.89% respectively. Obviously, human activities were the dominant factor influencing the runoff yield changes of the Xilin River Basin. The human activities include population explosion, livestock grazing, industrial development, agricultural irrigation and water conservancy projects, and the influence of human activities on runoff is mitigated because of soil and water conservation projects. Since the interaction between various factors is very complex, how to further quantitatively measure influence of each factor on runoff changes need intensive study.
中文关键词	径流量 ; 气候变化 ; 人类活动 ; 贡献率 ; 累积距平法 ; 累积量变化率比较分析法 ; 锡林河流域
英文关键词	runoff yield climate change human activities contribution rate cumulative anomaly (CA) slope change ratio of cumulative quantity Xilin River Basin
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	GEOGRAPHY
WOS研究方向	Geography
CSCD记录号	CSCD:5609000
来源机构	内蒙古农业大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/233821
作者单位	内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院, 呼和浩特, 内蒙古 010018, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	焦玮,朱仲元,宋小园,等. 近50年气候和人类活动对锡林河流域径流的影响[J]. 内蒙古农业大学,2015,13(6):12-19.
APA	焦玮,朱仲元,宋小园,隋佳硕,席小康,&董志兵.(2015).近50年气候和人类活动对锡林河流域径流的影响.中国水土保持科学,13(6),12-19.
MLA	焦玮,et al."近50年气候和人类活动对锡林河流域径流的影响".中国水土保持科学 13.6(2015):12-19.