干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 疏勒河径流量与绿洲面积、农业产值及生态效益的关系

Arid

	疏勒河径流量与绿洲面积、农业产值及生态效益的关系
其他题名	The Impact of Runoff on the Oasis Area,Agro-output Value and Ecological Benefits in the Shulehe River Basin
	李曼 1; 丁永建 1; 杨建平 1; 谭春萍 2; 杨圆 3
来源期刊	中国沙漠
ISSN	1000-694X
出版年	2015
卷号	35 期号:2 页码:514-520
中文摘要	基于19542010年疏勒河干流出山径流量、20002010年流域内灌区水资源供应量、灌区农作物种植类型、农作物及林草地面积等资料,通过建立系统动力学模型,探讨了气候变化背景下疏勒河径流量对绿洲的影响。结果表明:绿洲受径流量变化影响显著,若出山径流量按19542010年变化趋势增加,绿洲面积、农业产值、生态效益将有不同程度增加;若出山径流量减小,绿洲面积、农业产值、生态效益亦相应减小。2020年出山径流量较2010年分别减少5%、10%、15%时,绿洲面积和农业产值相应减小4.5%、8.9%、13.4%。在径流量不变情况下,若普及常规节水,林、草地面积均增加16%以上;若普及高效节水,林、草地面积均扩大54.7%;若提高渠系利用率到0.70,林草地面积扩大5%以上,总产值增加5.4%;若提高渠系利用率到0.75,林草地面积增加12%以上,总产值增加12.2%。
英文摘要	Based on the stream flow at the debouchure of the Shulehe River from1954-2010,and water supply, forest land,grassland area,crop type and its planting area at the irrigation district from2000-2010,the impact of runoff change at the Shulehe River Oasis has been studied using system dynamics model under the background of climate change.The results showed that runoff change had significant effects on the oasis.If the runoff maintains the same growth trend in the future,the oasis area,agricultural output and ecological benefits would increase at different degrees;if the runoff decreases,the oasis area,agricultural output and ecological benefits would decrease accordingly.To be specific,if the runoff decreases by5%, 10%and15% in 2020,the oasis area and agricultural output would decrease by 4.5%, 8.9%and 13.4%.Therefore,putting water-saving project into practice positively and improving the utilization of canal system could tackle the adverse effect of runoff reduction in the future.Particularly,in a case of the runoff unchanged,if we spread conventional water-saving,forest land and grassland area would both increase by more than 16%,and if we spread efficient water-saving,the forest land area and grassland area would increase by 54.7%.If we improve the utilization of canal system to 0.70,the forest land and grassland area would both increase by more than 5% with a total output increasing by 5.4%,and if we improve the utilization of canal system to 0.75, the forest land and grassland area would both increase by more than 12% with a total output increasing by 12.2%.
中文关键词	疏勒河 ; 径流 ; 系统动力学 ; 绿洲
英文关键词	Shulehe River runoff system dynamics oasis
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
CSCD记录号	CSCD:5372628
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/233746
作者单位	1.中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 中国科学院内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室;;冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国; 2.中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国; 3.中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所, 中国科学院内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室, 兰州, 甘肃 730000, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	李曼,丁永建,杨建平,等. 疏勒河径流量与绿洲面积、农业产值及生态效益的关系[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2015,35(2):514-520.
APA	李曼,丁永建,杨建平,谭春萍,&杨圆.(2015).疏勒河径流量与绿洲面积、农业产值及生态效益的关系.中国沙漠,35(2),514-520.
MLA	李曼,et al."疏勒河径流量与绿洲面积、农业产值及生态效益的关系".中国沙漠 35.2(2015):514-520.