干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 19582012年博斯腾湖水位变化驱动力

Arid

	19582012年博斯腾湖水位变化驱动力
其他题名	The Driving Forces of the Bosten Lake Water Level Variations in 1958-2012
	伊丽努尔·阿力甫江; 海米提·依米提; 麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜; 玉素甫江·如素力
来源期刊	中国沙漠
ISSN	1000-694X
出版年	2015
卷号	35 期号:1 页码:240-247
中文摘要	利用19582012年博斯腾湖流域水文、气象与社会经济资料序列,采用灰色关联法分析了博斯腾湖水位变化特征及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)在过去半个多世纪,博斯腾湖水位经历了下降、上升、再下降3个阶段,各阶段内各驱动因素的权重不同;(2)博斯腾湖水位变化主要是入湖流量、降水及气温波动等自然因素和耕地面积、灌溉面积、灌溉引水量及灌溉净耗水量等人为因素共同作用的结果,特别是入湖流量变化是博斯腾湖水位升降的主要影响因素。19581987年,开都河处于偏枯年份,博斯腾湖水位呈缓慢下降的趋势,水位从1958年的1 048.00m下降至1987年的1 045.03m,平均水位为1 047.20m,这期间自然因素对水位的影响较大;19882002年,开都河处于丰水年,入湖水量较多,博斯腾湖水位呈快速上升趋势,水位从1988年的1 045.21m上升至2002年的1 048.60m,平均水位为1 046.80m,这期间人类活动对水位的影响开始增强,但自然因素对水位的影响仍强于人类活动对水位的影响;20032012年,入湖水量减少,博斯腾湖水位又呈急剧下降趋势,水位从2003年的1 048.55m下降至2012年的1 045.68m,这期间人类活动对水位的影响呈显著增加趋势;(3)19582012年博斯腾湖水位变化的主要驱动因素总体呈自然因素向人类活动的变化趋势。
英文摘要	The variation of Lake water level and its environmental change are unavoidable processes under climate changes and human activities in arid regions.In this paper,the variations and driving forces of water level of the Bosten Lake,the largest inland fresh water lake in China,were studied based on the observed hydrological,metrological and social-economic data of the lake during 1958-2012,and Gray correlation analysis was employed as an effective methodology to discriminate potential contributions of natural and social-economic factors to level fluctuating of the lake.The results showed that:(1)The lake experienced three phases of water level fluctuating such as forepart falling,then rising and declining again with different driving weights over the past half a century;(2)Results of Gray correlation analyses showed that,the variation of water level of the Lake was caused mainly by the co-effects of the variations of natural factors such as flows into the lake,precipitation and temperature,and human factors such as the changes in farmland area, especially,the variations of flows into the lake was the main driving factor that effects the variation of water level.Because of Kaidu River runoff kept low flow state during 1958-1987,the water level of the lake has slowly declined,the water level of the lake decreased from1 048.00m in 1958 to 1 045.03 m in 1987,the average water level was about 1 047.20 m above sea level.The climate change is the most important factor to influence the declination of the lake level during this period;Kaidu River runoff kept high flow state during 1988-2002,and surface water inflow to the Bosten lake has increased.Contemporary,lake level raised significantly,the water level of the lake raised from1 045.21 m in1988to 1 048.60 m in2002,the average water level was about 1 046.80 m above sea level.The impact of human activity on the water level during this period began to increase,but the impact of natural factors is still stronger than the impact of human activities on the water level;surface water inflow into the Bosten lake decreased remarkably during 2003- 2012,lake water level also showed a sharp downward trend,the water level of the lake decreased from 1 048.55 m in 2003 to 1 045.68 m in 2012.The impact of human activities on the water level during this period showed a significant increasing are trend;(3)For the encompassing period of 1958-2012 with over half a century period,the main driver factors of water level variation transformed from climate change to social- economic development related human pressure.
中文关键词	博斯腾湖 ; 水位 ; 驱动力 ; 灰色关联法
英文关键词	Bosten Lake water level variation driving force analysis gray correlation analysis
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:5337126
来源机构	新疆师范大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/233719
作者单位	新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院, 新疆干旱区湖泊环境与资源重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830054, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	伊丽努尔·阿力甫江,海米提·依米提,麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜,等. 19582012年博斯腾湖水位变化驱动力[J]. 新疆师范大学,2015,35(1):240-247.
APA	伊丽努尔·阿力甫江,海米提·依米提,麦麦提吐尔逊·艾则孜,&玉素甫江·如素力.(2015).19582012年博斯腾湖水位变化驱动力.中国沙漠,35(1),240-247.
MLA	伊丽努尔·阿力甫江,et al."19582012年博斯腾湖水位变化驱动力".中国沙漠 35.1(2015):240-247.