干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 西南地区农业旱情的气象干旱指数适应性研究

Arid

	西南地区农业旱情的气象干旱指数适应性研究
其他题名	Research on the adaptability of meteorological arid index of agricultural drought in Southwest China
	何俊琦 1; 余锦华 1; 高歌 2; 王静 1
来源期刊	气象科学
ISSN	1009-0827
出版年	2015
卷号	35 期号:4 页码:454-461
中文摘要	利用西南地区60站19612011年的日平均气温、降水量资料求得半年尺度的气象干旱指数值,包括帕尔默干旱指数、标准化降水干旱指数、Z指数、降水距平百分率指数。采用超前相关、相似和技巧评分两种计算方法检测与西南地区农业灾情最适宜的气象干旱指数。基于最适宜的干旱指数,给出西南地区农业干旱灾害可能发生的风险分布。结果表明: Z指数定义的冬半年气象干旱对西南地区农业旱情的指示性较其他3种气象干旱指标更优。冬半年Z指数小于等于- 0.84时引发的西南地区农业干旱灾害成灾率大于8%的风险平均达0.53,农业干旱绝收率大于5%的风险平均达0.37,风险最大地区位于贵州西北部。结论有助于深入认识气象干旱指数与农业干旱灾情的联系,对于西南地区农业干旱的检测预测有一定的应用价值。
英文摘要	By using the daily mean temperature and precipitation data from 60 observation stations in Southwest China from 1961 to 2011,the half-year scale meteorological drought index values,including Palmer drought index,standardized rainfall drought index,Z index and precipitation anomalies percentage, are collected. Methods of lead correlation,similarity and skill score are adopted to detect the most suitable meteorological drought index related to the agricultural disasters in Southwest China,based on which,the possible risk distribution of agricultural drought disasters in Southwest China is obtained. The results show that the meteorological drought in winter half - year defined by Z index is much more indicative on the agricultural drought in Southwest China than the other three kinds of meteorological drought indexes; when Z index in winter half year is ≤ - 0.84,its raising risks of the > 8% agricultural drought disaster rate and the > 5% agricultural drought crop failure rate amount to 0.53 and 0.37,respectively, and the highest risk area is in the Northwest Guizhou. The conclusion not only help to know the connection between the meteorological drought index and agricultural drought disaster thoroughly,but has certain application value in the detection and prediction of agricultural drought in Southwest China.
中文关键词	干旱 ; 气象干旱指数 ; 农业干旱灾情 ; 干旱风险 ; 西南地区
英文关键词	Drought Meteorological drought index Agricultural drought disaster Drought Risk Southwest China
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
CSCD记录号	CSCD:5524482
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/233087
作者单位	1.南京信息工程大学, 气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国; 2.中国气象局国家气候中心, 北京 100081, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	何俊琦,余锦华,高歌,等. 西南地区农业旱情的气象干旱指数适应性研究[J],2015,35(4):454-461.
APA	何俊琦,余锦华,高歌,&王静.(2015).西南地区农业旱情的气象干旱指数适应性研究.气象科学,35(4),454-461.
MLA	何俊琦,et al."西南地区农业旱情的气象干旱指数适应性研究".气象科学 35.4(2015):454-461.