干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 中亚干旱区降水时空变化特征及趋势分析

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	中亚干旱区降水时空变化特征及趋势分析
其他题名	Spatiotemporal variations and tendency of annual precipitation in the arid Central Asia
	徐利岗 1; 杜历 2; 姚海娇 1; 王怀博 2
来源期刊	干旱区资源与环境
ISSN	1003-7578
出版年	2015
卷号	29 期号:11 页码:121-127
中文摘要	基于中亚干旱区境内344个气象站点1950 - 2010年月降水系列,利用轮次分析、游程检验、降水集度(PCI)、Mann - Kendall法及气候趋势系数等方法,分析了研究区降水的丰枯变化规律、不同时间尺度演变特征、未来变化趋势及其梯度的时空分异特征。结果表明: 中亚干旱区各地的极大丰水历时均小于极限枯水历时,极限干旱历时为5年,年平均缺水量为35.4mm,占多年平均降水量的11.1%; 单独丰水年的概率略高于单独枯水年,大于5年的丰水概率为5.8%,枯水概率6.2%。研究区中部降水年内分配规律稳定、年际变化较小,西部降水年内分配年际变化差异较大,中亚五国降水具有显著的季节性变化(PCI为14 - 22)。春季降水占全年降水量的37.7%,冬季占全年24.4%; 中国西北干旱区年降水月际变化显著(PCI为24 - 34间)。研究区年降水呈增加趋势(P = 0.01的显著性),增幅为3.9mm/10a(P = 0.01),境内各地增幅为0.02 - 5.12 mm/10a。哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦均呈显著增加趋势(P = 0.01),增幅分别为2.6 mm/10a、3.1 mm/10a及3.7 mm/10a,中国西北干旱区通过P = 0.05显著性检验,增加梯度1.8 mm/10a。
英文摘要	Using the run theory,displacement,extremum deviation theory,precipitation intensity (PCI),the Mann - Kendall rank correlation method and climatic trend coefficient method,the characteristics of precipitation on wet and low,the multiple - time scale change and variability tendency and gradient were analyzed by the monthly precipitation data of 344 sites in the arid Central Asia during 1950 - 2010. Results indicate that the probability of single abundant precipitation year was higher than single short precipitation year,extreme drought duration was 5 years,deficit 35.4mm,accounting for 11.1% of the average annual precipitation for years,more than 5 years of wet probability of 5.8%,low water probability 6.2%. In center of the study area,precipitation distribution was stability in intra - annual,smaller change for inter - annual. In western area,monthly distribution variation of precipitation was high for inter - annual. Precipitations of five central Asian countries had obvious seasonal change (PCI = 14 - 22); precipitation in spring accounted for 37.7% of all year,winter accounted for 24.4%. The change was very significant for inter - year in northwest China arid areas (PCI = 24 - 34). Annual precipitation showed increase tendency (passed P = 0.01 significant test) and the ratio was 3.9mm/10a, whereas the ratio was 0.02 - 5.12 mm/10a in other regions. Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan all showed an increasing trend significantly (P = 0.01) with 2.6 mm/10a,3.1 mm/10a and 3.7 mm/10a respectively,it was1.8 mm/10a in the arid Northwest China (P = 0.05).
中文关键词	中亚干旱区 ; 降水 ; 时空变化 ; 趋势分析 ; Mann - Kendall法
英文关键词	the arid Central Asia precipitation stability tendency Mann - Kendall
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:5573475
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/232814
作者单位	1.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 阜康荒漠生态系统国家野外观测研究站, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830011, 中国; 2.宁夏水利科学研究院, 银川, 宁夏 750021, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	徐利岗,杜历,姚海娇,等. 中亚干旱区降水时空变化特征及趋势分析[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,2015,29(11):121-127.
APA	徐利岗,杜历,姚海娇,&王怀博.(2015).中亚干旱区降水时空变化特征及趋势分析.干旱区资源与环境,29(11),121-127.
MLA	徐利岗,et al."中亚干旱区降水时空变化特征及趋势分析".干旱区资源与环境 29.11(2015):121-127.