干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 气候变化和人类活动对干旱区内陆河径流量的影响以新疆玛纳斯河流域肯斯瓦特水文站为例

Arid

	气候变化和人类活动对干旱区内陆河径流量的影响以新疆玛纳斯河流域肯斯瓦特水文站为例
其他题名	Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff of Continental River in Arid Areas Taking Kensiwate Hydrological Station in Xinjiang Manas River Basin as an Example
	陈伏龙 1; 王怡璇 1; 吴泽斌 2; 冯平 1
来源期刊	干旱区研究
ISSN	1001-4675
出版年	2015
卷号	32 期号:4 页码:692-697
中文摘要	近55 a来,新疆玛纳斯河流域肯斯瓦特水文站年径流量呈增加趋势,为了研究气候变化和人类活动影响下肯斯瓦特径流的变化规律,利用肯斯瓦特水文站19552010年数据资料,采用线性回归、趋势分析及滑动平均等方法,分析肯斯瓦特站的径流和气候变化特征,并运用Mann-Kendall和累积距平法识别出径流变化过程中1995年为其突变年份,降水量变化过程中突变年份为1997年,而蒸发量突变年份为1996年。利用统计分析法分析了19551995年和19962010年2个时期的累积径流量、降水量和蒸发量与年份之间的线性关系。采用累积量斜率变化率比较法,计算得出肯斯瓦特站降水量增加对径流量增加的贡献率为59.64%,蒸发量增加对径流量增加的贡献率为31.83%,人类活动对径流量增加的贡献率为8.53%,表明气候变化是影响径流量变化的主要因素。
英文摘要	Climate change has become a global issue of common concern to people. With climate change and human activity aggravation,water shortage has become a worldwide problem. Analysis the influence factors of the basin runoff change,quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff has the vital significance for reasonable allocation of river basin water resources and ecological construction. In recent 55 years,the annual runoff of Kensiwate hydrological station in Xinjiang Manas River Basin shows increasing trend. To analyze the evolvement rules of the runoff in Kensiwate hydrological station under the conditions of climate change and human activities,this study detected the variation characteristics of runoff and climate changes using linear regression, trend analysis and moving average on the basis of the annual data from 1955 to 2010. In addition,the break points of runoff,precipitation and evaporation were detected using Mann-Kendalls test and the cumulative departure method,which were 1995,1997 and 1996,respectively. The linear relationship between years and cumulative runoff,cumulative precipitation,cumulative evaporation from 1955 to 1995 and from 1996 to 2010 was analyzed by statistical analysis methods. The results of cumulative slope rate comparison method showed that the precipitation,evaporation and human activitiescontribution to runoff increase accounted for 59.64%,31.83% and 8.53%,respectively. According to the research results,climate change was the main factor of runoff variation.
中文关键词	径流量 ; 降水量 ; 蒸发量 ; 气候变化 ; 人类活动 ; 肯斯瓦特水文站 ; 玛纳斯河流域 ; 新疆
英文关键词	runoff precipitation evaporation climate change human activities Kensiwate Hydrological Station Manas River Basin Xinjiang
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
CSCD记录号	CSCD:5482779
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/232727
作者单位	1.天津大学, 水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室, 天津 300072, 中国; 2.水利部办公厅, 北京 100053, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	陈伏龙,王怡璇,吴泽斌,等. 气候变化和人类活动对干旱区内陆河径流量的影响以新疆玛纳斯河流域肯斯瓦特水文站为例[J],2015,32(4):692-697.
APA	陈伏龙,王怡璇,吴泽斌,&冯平.(2015).气候变化和人类活动对干旱区内陆河径流量的影响以新疆玛纳斯河流域肯斯瓦特水文站为例.干旱区研究,32(4),692-697.
MLA	陈伏龙,et al."气候变化和人类活动对干旱区内陆河径流量的影响以新疆玛纳斯河流域肯斯瓦特水文站为例".干旱区研究 32.4(2015):692-697.