干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 西部干旱区未来气候变化高分辨率预估

Arid

	西部干旱区未来气候变化高分辨率预估
其他题名	High-resolution projection of future climate change in the northwestern arid regions of China
	于恩涛 1; 孙建奇 1; 吕光辉2 ; 陈活泼 1; 向伟玲 3
来源期刊	干旱区地理
ISSN	1000-6060
出版年	2015
卷号	38 期号:3 页码:429-437
中文摘要	利用高分辨率区域气候模式WRF,基于CMIP5计划中MIROC5输出结果,进行了我国高分辨率(30 km)的历史模拟及未来预估。针对我国西部干旱区,在模式验证的基础上分析了该区域未来气温和降水的变化。历史模拟结果显示WRF对我国西部干旱区有较好的模拟能力,模拟结果较MIROC5有明显改进。21世纪西部干旱区将持续增暖,末期的增温幅度明显高于中期。和全国平均相比,西部干旱区21世纪增温幅度高于全国平均水平。空间分布上,年平均气温变化的主要特征是新疆南部增温高于新疆北部,山区的增温高于盆地。气温季节变化主要表现为夏季增温集中在山区,而冬季增温则更多集中在盆地。西部干旱区降水在21世纪总体呈现减少趋势,夏季降水减少更为明显,这和全国平均的降水增加并不一致。空间分布上,降水变化的主要特征是山区降水减少,其中夏季山区降水减少十分明显,而盆地降水则略有增加。
英文摘要	The climate over northwest China is always a big challenge for the Global Climate Models(GCMs) due to its complex topography and surface conditions,high-resolution dynamical downscaling simulation is usually considered as one useful method to achieve better model performance,both for the present climate simulation and the future projection. In this paper,a long term simulation over China for 1961-2100 was conducted using WRF model,which was forced by the output of MIROC5 from both historical and future projection experiment of the CMIP5 project,the horizental resolution is as high as 30 km. The model validation and future climate change was investigated focusing on northwest China. The results show that WRF has good performance in reproducing the regional temperature and precipitation distribution over northwest China. In the 21st century,surface temperature will continue to rise over northwest China,and the magnitude is larger in the end of 21st century than that in the middle. The annual mean temperature will rise faster in the southern part of Xinjiang than that in the northern part,and faster in the mountains than in the deserts. For the seasonal temperature change,the summer mean temperature will rise faster in the mountains,while the winter mean temperature will rise faster in the deserts. The precipitation over northwest China will decrease in the 21st century,especially in summer. The simulation indicates that the precipitation will decrease in the mountains,while increase slightly in the deserts.
中文关键词	西部干旱区 ; 气候变化 ; 高分辨率 ; 未来预估
英文关键词	northwest arid regions climate change high resolution climate projection
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:5446643
来源机构	中国科学院大气物理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/232650
作者单位	1.中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢南森国际研究中心, 北京 100029, 中国; 2.绿洲生态教育部重点实验室, 绿洲生态教育部重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830046, 中国; 3.中国科学院大气物理研究所, 大气边界层物理和大气化学国家重点实验室, 北京 100029, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	于恩涛,孙建奇,吕光辉,等. 西部干旱区未来气候变化高分辨率预估[J]. 中国科学院大气物理研究所,2015,38(3):429-437.
APA	于恩涛,孙建奇,吕光辉,陈活泼,&向伟玲.(2015).西部干旱区未来气候变化高分辨率预估.干旱区地理,38(3),429-437.
MLA	于恩涛,et al."西部干旱区未来气候变化高分辨率预估".干旱区地理 38.3(2015):429-437.