干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 干旱区绿洲城市发展与水资源需求预警分析以乌鲁木齐市为例

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	干旱区绿洲城市发展与水资源需求预警分析以乌鲁木齐市为例
其他题名	Scenario Warning for Urban Development and Water Resource Demand in the Arid Oasis City of Urumqi
	唐宏 1; 夏富强 2; 杨德刚 2; 黄凤 3; 乔旭宁 4
来源期刊	资源科学
ISSN	1007-7588
出版年	2014
卷号	36 期号:6 页码:1168-1174
中文摘要	基于乌鲁木齐市城市发展与水资源开发利用历史数据,采用系统动力学方法,构建干旱区绿洲城市发展与水资源需求预警系统仿真模型,并对乌鲁木齐市城市发展的水资源需求进行多情景模拟。模拟结果显示:①现有水资源条件难以满足城市发展的需要,各情景下水资源对城市发展系统均存在较强约束,采用调水与节水方案,乌鲁木齐市中、高速发展情景下到2030年将分别存在5.17亿m~3、30.15亿m~3的水资源缺口;②节水方案对水资源开发利用潜力提高的效果远大于调水的效果,社会经济发展越快,节水带来的效果越明显;③适度增强城市人口和产业的集聚与规模效应,降低用水定额,提高水资源利用效率,是提高水资源开发利用潜力最有效的途径;④通过跨流域调水提高区域的供水能力,有助于减弱水资源系统对城市发展系统的约束作用。
英文摘要	Water resource scarcity influences economic and social development,and the relationship between urban development and water resources are closer in arid areas such as northwest China. In this study,the typical arid oasis city of Urumqi in Xinjiang province was selected as a case study. Based on urban development and water resource system data,a warning analysis model was built using the program Vensim,and different scenarios for urban development, water supply and water consumption were established. We found that differences in water consumption were mainly affected by urban development and water consumption,differences in total water supply were affected by water supply scenarios,and both these affected the balance of water supply and demand. Water resources were strained to meet the demand of urban development,and had a strong constraint on urban development in various scenarios. Under scenarios of inter-basin water transfer and water-saving consumption,the water shortage in 2030 will be 5.17 * 10~8m~3 and 30.15 * 10~8m~3 respectively under middle and high urban development scenarios. Water conservation programs played a bigger role than inter- basin water transfer programs on improving the water resource potential,and the higher the urban development the more obvious the effects. Expanding the city scale appropriately and accelerating the concentration of population and industries will improve water use efficiency. Improving the capacity of water supply through inter-basin water transfer will weaken the constraint intensity of water resources on urban development.
中文关键词	城市发展 ; 水资源潜力 ; 预警分析 ; 约束强度 ; 绿洲城市 ; 乌鲁木齐市
英文关键词	urban development potential of water resources warning analysis constraint intensity oasis city Urumqi city
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
CSCD记录号	CSCD:5168721
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/232305
作者单位	1.四川农业大学经济管理学院四川省农村发展研究中心, 成都, 四川 611130, 中国; 2.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830011, 中国; 3.四川省宜宾市城乡规划建设地理信息中心, 宜宾, 四川 644000, 中国; 4.河南理工大学测绘与国土信息工程学院, 焦作, 河南 454000, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	唐宏,夏富强,杨德刚,等. 干旱区绿洲城市发展与水资源需求预警分析以乌鲁木齐市为例[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,2014,36(6):1168-1174.
APA	唐宏,夏富强,杨德刚,黄凤,&乔旭宁.(2014).干旱区绿洲城市发展与水资源需求预警分析以乌鲁木齐市为例.资源科学,36(6),1168-1174.
MLA	唐宏,et al."干旱区绿洲城市发展与水资源需求预警分析以乌鲁木齐市为例".资源科学 36.6(2014):1168-1174.