干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 宁夏旱涝灾害对气候变化的响应

Arid

	宁夏旱涝灾害对气候变化的响应
其他题名	Response of Drought and Flood Disasters to Climate Change in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region
	杨蓉; 延军平
来源期刊	水土保持通报
ISSN	1000-288X
出版年	2014
卷号	34 期号:5 页码:272-277
中文摘要	利用宁夏回族自治区20个气象站自建站以来到2012年共52 a的降水数据资料,运用趋势线、滑动平均等数理分析方法对宁夏52 a以来的降水变化特征进行了分析,并应用降水Z指数和正负20%的降水距平指标对宁夏的旱涝灾害特征进行了分析。最后基于信息预测理论的对称性及可公度法,对宁夏未来的旱涝灾害进行了趋势判断。结果表明:(1)宁夏52 a年降水量以8. 57 mm/10 a的速度递减,从20世纪90年代起干旱化趋势明显。(2)宁夏旱涝灾害交替发生,旱涝出现的频率为32.7%和28. 7%,降水正常年份仅占38.5%。(3)宁夏旱涝灾害的发生具有显著对称性周期特征,未来发生旱灾的可能年份是2014和2015年,发生涝灾的可能年份是2017年。
英文摘要	According to 52-year precipitation data from 20 meteorological stations in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region from their establishments in 2012,the mathematical analysis methods such as the trend line method and 5-year moving average method were applied to analyze the precipitation variation characteristics in more than 50 years,and the precipitation Z index and the precipitation anomaly indicators of plus or minus 20% points were also used to analyze the characteristics of droughts and floods in the region, then a trend judg ment of the droughts and floods was made based on the symmetry of information forecast theory and commensurable calculation method. The results showed: (1) The precipitation in more than 50 years of Ningxia region was reduced at a rate of 8. 57 mm/10 a,and the arid trend was obvious since 1990s; (2) The drought and flood disasters occurred alternately, the frequency of drought and flood was 32. 7% and 28. 7%, respectively,and it was only 38. 5% in a normal year; (3) The droughts and floods occured with obvious characteristics of symmetry cycle,the drought years may occur in 2014 and 2015,floods may occur in 2017.
中文关键词	气候变化 ; 宁夏 ; 旱涝灾害 ; 响应特征
英文关键词	climate change Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region drought and flood disasters response characteristics
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
CSCD记录号	CSCD:5309397
来源机构	陕西师范大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/231748
作者单位	陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院, 西安, 陕西 710062, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	杨蓉,延军平. 宁夏旱涝灾害对气候变化的响应[J]. 陕西师范大学,2014,34(5):272-277.
APA	杨蓉,&延军平.(2014).宁夏旱涝灾害对气候变化的响应.水土保持通报,34(5),272-277.
MLA	杨蓉,et al."宁夏旱涝灾害对气候变化的响应".水土保持通报 34.5(2014):272-277.