干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 喀斯特石漠化地区耕地压力动态变化分析与预测

Arid

	喀斯特石漠化地区耕地压力动态变化分析与预测
其他题名	Analysis and prediction of cultivated land pressure index in the Karst rock desertification
	李亮; 但文红
来源期刊	广东农业科学
ISSN	1004-874X
出版年	2014
卷号	41 期号:2 页码:162-166
中文摘要	运用MATLAB 软件,在计算贵州省20002011年耕地、人口、粮食产量动态变化的基础上,分析耕地面积、人口数量与耕地压力指数的变化特点;并采用DGM(1,1)离散预测模型对贵州省20152030年的耕地压力指数状况进行预测。结果表明,20002011年间,贵州省耕地总量及人均耕地面积持续减少;人均粮食产量持续增加,人口净流出加快,使得耕地压力指数波动减少,但耕地压力指数始终保持在1.0以上,粮食供给处于不安全状态;20152030年,耕地压力指数将持续减少,粮食安全形势缓和。增加农业科技投入、农田基本建设和土地整治工作与加快净流出人口数量,是减轻耕地压力、保证粮食安全的根本途径。
英文摘要	Based on calculating the dynamic change of land, population, grain output in 2000 -2011 by using MATLAB software, change characteristics of cultivated land area, population and the pressure index of cultivated land in Guizhou province were analyzed, and DGM (1,1) discrete model was used to forecast the cultivated land pressure index in 2015-2030. The results showed that the total cultivated land and per capita area of cultivated land continued decreasing, but the net outflow of population accelerated, at the same time the per capita grain output continued increasing, the cultivated land pressure index volatility reduced, cultivated land pressure index kept above 1.0, food supply was unsafe in Guizhou province in 2000-2011. The cultivated land pressure index will continue to reduce and the food security situation eases in 2015-2030. The result indicates that it is the basic way to reduce the pressure of cultivated land and ensure food security by increasing the agricultural investment in science and technology, strengthening the basic construction of farmland and land rectification work, speeding up the net outflow of population.
中文关键词	耕地压力指数 ; DGM(1,1)离散预测模型 ; 粮食安全 ; 贵州省
英文关键词	cultivated land pressure index DGM(1,1) discrete forecast model grain security Guizhou province
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS POLICY
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
CSCD记录号	CSCD:5079268
来源机构	贵州师范大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/231303
作者单位	贵州师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 贵阳, 贵州 550001, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	李亮,但文红. 喀斯特石漠化地区耕地压力动态变化分析与预测[J]. 贵州师范大学,2014,41(2):162-166.
APA	李亮,&但文红.(2014).喀斯特石漠化地区耕地压力动态变化分析与预测.广东农业科学,41(2),162-166.
MLA	李亮,et al."喀斯特石漠化地区耕地压力动态变化分析与预测".广东农业科学 41.2(2014):162-166.