干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区模拟能力评价

Arid

	CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区模拟能力评价
其他题名	Evaluation of CMIP5 modes’s simulation ability in the northwest arid areas of China
	吴晶 1; 罗毅 2; 李佳 1; 李春轩 1; 袁良 3; 杨鲤铭 4
来源期刊	干旱区地理
ISSN	1000-6060
出版年	2014
卷号	37 期号:3 页码:499-508
中文摘要	气候模式是研究气候系统和气候变化的重要工具,气候模式结果是进行气候预测和气候变化风险评估的重要依据。基于中国西北干旱区78个气象站点1960-2005年的观测数据,对最新公布的CMIP5的39个模式在中国西北干旱区1960-2005年平均气温、降水的模拟能力进行评估。结果表明:多个模式模拟年平均气温与观测值的相关系数达到0.39,夏、秋季节的相关系数好于春、冬季,年平均气温模拟大多偏低2 ℃以上,其中MIROC4h、CCSM4和CMCC-CM对年平均气温的模拟绝对误差较小。模拟的年、季降水量与观测值的相关系数很差,均不到0.1。年降水量模拟普遍偏高100 mm以上,其中CMCC-CM、CNRM-CM5和MRI-CGCM3对年降水量模拟绝对误差较小。年际变化趋势上,模拟的平均气温升高趋势和降水量增加趋势均比观测趋势要低,模拟的冬季平均气温升高趋势偏低最明显,达-0.21 ℃/10 a,模拟夏季的降水量增加趋势偏低最明显,相对误差达-99%。CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区的模拟效果整体上偏差较大,未来无论从物理过程还是模式算法都需要进一步研究和改进。
英文摘要	Climate models are important tools to study the effects of climate system and climate change,climate model results is important basis for weather forecast and climate change risk assessment. The northwest arid area of China is sensitive to climate change,and is one of the regions where atmosphere and land is strongly coupled. However, the current climate models still remain a lot of uncertainties about the region’s simulation results. Therefore,it is necessary to access simulated results of climate models,which could provide scientific basis for climate modes’ improvement and simulation ability. Based on the observed average temperature and precipitation of seventy-eight weather stations from 1960 to 2005 in the study area,the simulation ability of annual average temperature and precipitation from the latest thirty-nine CMIP5 modes were evaluated,adopting the indices such as correlation coefficient, mean absolute error,root-mean-square error and interannual variation. The results indicated that the correlation coefficients between simulated and observed data reached to 0.39,and the correlations in summer and autumn were better than those in spring and winter,the simulated annual average temperatures were 2 ℃ less in the most cases,mean absolute error of annual average temperature simulated by MIROC4h,CCSM4 and CMCC-CM is lower. The correlation coefficients between simulated and observed precipitation on the yearly and seasonal scales were very poor and less than 0.1,and the precipitation was overestimated by 100 mm in the most cases, mean absolute error of annual precipitation simulated by CMCC-CM,CNRM CM5 and MRI-CGCM3 is lower. As for the interannual variation trend,the rising trends of simulated annual average temperature and simulated precipitation were lower than that of observation,the rising trend of simulated average temperature in winter reached to -0.21 ℃/10 a and was the lowest. The rising trend of simulated precipitation in summer was the lowest and the mean error was close to -99%. On the whole,there are the marked differences between simulated values and observed values,especially for simulated precipitation. Simulation ability of climate modes in the northwest arid area of China is in need of further improving, physical mechanism of climate system is worth doing a study in depth,and the modes should be modified reasonably.
中文关键词	CMIP5模式 ; 气温 ; 降水 ; 中国西北干旱区
英文关键词	CMIP5 mode temperature precipitation northwest arid region of China
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:5167267
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/231117
作者单位	1.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830011, 中国; 2.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室;;中国科学院生态系统网络观测与模拟重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830011, 中国; 3.南京信息工程大学大气科学学院, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国; 4.南京航空航天大学航空宇航学院, 南京, 江苏 210016, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	吴晶,罗毅,李佳,等. CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区模拟能力评价[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,2014,37(3):499-508.
APA	吴晶,罗毅,李佳,李春轩,袁良,&杨鲤铭.(2014).CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区模拟能力评价.干旱区地理,37(3),499-508.
MLA	吴晶,et al."CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区模拟能力评价".干旱区地理 37.3(2014):499-508.