干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 西北干旱区气候变化对水文水资源影响研究进展

Arid

	西北干旱区气候变化对水文水资源影响研究进展
其他题名	Research progress on the impact of climate change on water resources in the arid region of Northwest China
	陈亚宁; 李稚; 范煜婷; 王怀军; 方功焕
来源期刊	地理学报
ISSN	0375-5444
出版年	2014
卷号	69 期号:9 页码:1295-1304
中文摘要	西北干旱区是对全球变化响应最敏感地区之一,研究分析全球变暖背景下的西北干旱区水资源问题,对应对和适应未来气候变化带来的影响具有重要意义。本文通过对西北干旱区气候变暖影响下的水资源形成、转化与水循环等关键问题最新研究成果的总结分析,得出如下结论:(1)西北干旱区温度、降水在过去的50年出现过突变型升高,但进入21世纪,温度和降水均处于高位震荡,升高趋势减弱;(2)西北干旱区冬季温度的大幅升高是拉动年均温度抬升的重要原因,而西伯利亚高压活动和二氧化碳排放是引起冬季升温的重要影响因素;(3)西北干旱区蒸发潜力在1993年出现了一个明显的转折变化,由显著下降逆转为显著上升的趋势。气候变暖、蒸发水平增大对西北干旱区生态效应的负作用已经凸显;(4)西北干旱区冰川变化对水资源量及年内分配产生了重要影响,部分河流已经出现冰川消融拐点。在塔里木河流域,冰川融水份额较大(50%),可能在未来一段时期,河川径流还将处在高位状态波动。全球气候变暖在加大极端气候水文事件发生频率和强度的同时,加剧了西北干旱区内陆河流域的水文波动和水资源的不确定性。
英文摘要	The arid region of Northwest China is a special natural unit, which responds sensitively to the global climate change. Studies on the impact of climate change on water resources in the arid region of Northwest China have a significant effect on the adaptability of future climate change. Based on the latest research results, this paper analyzes the impacts of climate change on the formation and transformation of water resources and water cycle in the arid region of Northwest China. The results can be shown as follows: (1) The air temperature and precipitation in the arid region of Northwest China had a significant increasing trend in the past 50 years, however, the sharp increasing trend has retarded since the 21st century. (2) The temperature change in winter could be the most important factor for the unusually sharp rise in annual air temperature in this region. Moreover, the Siberian High and carbon dioxide emissions could be the most important reasons for the higher rate of the winter temperature rise. (3) Pan evaporation in the region exhibited an obvious decreasing trend until the early 1990s (1993), however, the downward trend reversed to go upward since 1993. The negative effects of warming and increasing evaporation on ecology have been highlighted in the arid region of Northwest China. (4) The glacier change has exerted great impact on water resources and its annual distribution in the arid region of Northwest China, and many rivers have passed the "Glacier inflexion". In the Tarim River Basin, the proportion of glacier melt water to runoff is high (e.g., as much as 50%) and it is supposed that the runoff may show a great fluctuation in the near future. Global warming not only increases the frequency and intensity of hydrological extremes, but also intensifies the fluctuation and uncertainty of inland rivers.
中文关键词	气候变化 ; 水资源 ; 西北干旱区
英文关键词	climate change water resources arid region of Northwest China
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
CSCD记录号	CSCD:5248449
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/230930
作者单位	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐, 新疆 830011, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	陈亚宁,李稚,范煜婷,等. 西北干旱区气候变化对水文水资源影响研究进展[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,2014,69(9):1295-1304.
APA	陈亚宁,李稚,范煜婷,王怀军,&方功焕.(2014).西北干旱区气候变化对水文水资源影响研究进展.地理学报,69(9),1295-1304.
MLA	陈亚宁,et al."西北干旱区气候变化对水文水资源影响研究进展".地理学报 69.9(2014):1295-1304.