干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): APSIM苜蓿模型在宁夏半干旱地区的适应性

Arid

	APSIM苜蓿模型在宁夏半干旱地区的适应性
其他题名	Adaptability of APSIM Lucerne Model in Semiarid Area of Ningxia
	奥海玮; 谢应忠; 李永宏; 宋乃平; 马建乐; 马明德
来源期刊	草地学报
ISSN	1007-0435
出版年	2014
卷号	22 期号:3 页码:535-541
中文摘要	基于宁夏3个试验点的数据和同期气象资料,对APSIM模型在宁夏半干旱地区的适应性进行研究。根据试验条件建立相应模型,通过试错法对模型相关参数进行校准,实现参数的本地化;并运用多个检验统计指标验证紫花苜蓿(Medicago sativa)土壤含水量及其分别在同心和银川试验点的生育期和干草产量。结果表明:各生育期模拟值和实测值显著相关,决定系数R2分别为0. 99和1. 00, D值均为0. 99,NRMSE分别为2. 4%和7. 8% ;干草产量表现出良好的相关性和一致性,决定系数R2分别为0. 82和0.98, D值均为0. 99,NRMSE分别为7.1%和9.3%。模拟值比实测值平均高估了7.1%;土壤含水量整体表现出较好的相关性和一致性,决定系数R2为0.82, D为0.85,NRMSE为10%,模拟值比实测值平均高估了10.1%。产量的高估很有可能与水分的高估相关,需要更详细的测量田间试验数据,改善模型土壤参数描述,提高模型预测准确度。校准后的APSIM模型在宁夏半干旱地区具有较好的适应性,可以用于指导该区半干旱区苜蓿生产及栽培措施优化管理。
英文摘要	The performance of APSIM model in simulating soil moisture dynamics and plant growth and production for lucerne (Medicago sativa L. ) crop was assessed against the crop observations from three sites in semi-arid Ningxia region of Western China. The model parameters for characterizing plant growth and development for local cultivar, Guyuan lucerne (Medicago sativa L. Guyuan,),were specified or estimated using try-and-error methods based on the detailed observations at one site (Guyuan). Then the model performance in simulating crop phenological development and dry matter production was compared with the observations at another two sites (Tongxin and Yinchuan) to validate the model parameterization. The simulations used local meteorological data and soil profile description at each sites. The results showed that modeled plant phenological development (number of days from sowing to emergence,floral initiation and flowering) matched excellently with the observed at both sites (R~2 =0. 99, D = 0. 99,NRMSE =2. 4% at Tongxin and R~2 = 1. 00,D = 0. 99,NRMSE =7. 8% at Yinchuan, respectively) ; modeled plant dry matter production agreed well with the observed (R~2 =0. 82, D = 0. 99, NRMRE =7. 1% at Tongxin and R~2=0. 98,D = 0. 99,NRMSE =9.3% at Yinchuan, respectively) , though a slight overestimation (7. 1% on average) ; and modeled soil moisture also agreed reasonably to the observed (R~2 =0. 82,D = 0.85, NRMSE =10%) , also with a overestimation (10. 1 % on average). Slightly overestimation of plant production is most likely related with the overestimation of soil moisture, which suggests more detailed measurements being needed for describing soil profiles and improving model predictions. This model parameterization and validation provides the confidence for using the model to optimize crop management, and assess climate change impacts in the semiarid area of Ningxia.
中文关键词	APSIM苜蓿模型 ; 固原苜蓿 ; 参数本地化 ; 适应性 ; 宁夏半干旱区
英文关键词	APSIM-lucerne model Guyuan lucerne Model parameterization and validation Adaptability Semiarid area of Ningxia
类型	Article
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	Agriculture
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
CSCD记录号	CSCD:5160106
来源机构	宁夏大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/230822
作者单位	奥海玮, 宁夏大学, 银川, 宁夏 750021, 中国.; 谢应忠, 宁夏大学, 银川, 宁夏 750021, 中国.; 宋乃平, 宁夏大学, 银川, 宁夏 750021, 中国.; 马明德, 宁夏大学, 银川, 宁夏 750021, 中国.; 李永宏, 新西兰草地农业研究院草地研究中心, 北帕尔默斯顿, 11008, 新西兰.; 马建乐, 中国矿业大学(北京)银川学院, 银川, 宁夏 750021, 中国.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	奥海玮,谢应忠,李永宏,等. APSIM苜蓿模型在宁夏半干旱地区的适应性[J]. 宁夏大学,2014,22(3):535-541.
APA	奥海玮,谢应忠,李永宏,宋乃平,马建乐,&马明德.(2014).APSIM苜蓿模型在宁夏半干旱地区的适应性.草地学报,22(3),535-541.
MLA	奥海玮,et al."APSIM苜蓿模型在宁夏半干旱地区的适应性".草地学报 22.3(2014):535-541.