干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 甘肃省近42年降水量变化时空分布格局分析

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	甘肃省近42年降水量变化时空分布格局分析
其他题名	Spatial temporal Distribution of Precipitation in Gansu Province Last 42 Years
	王红霞; 柳小妮; 李纯斌; 任正超; 潘冬荣; 魏靖琼
来源期刊	中国农业气象
ISSN	1000-6362
出版年	2013
卷号	34 期号:4 页码:384-389
中文摘要	采用反距离加权法(IDW)、普通克里格(OK)、协同克里格(CK)、微地形多元回归+残差分析法(M AMMRR)和改进的M AMMRR法(I AMMRR)进行甘肃省1970-2011年均降水量、降水趋势的空间插值与交叉验证分析,并进一步分析降水量时空变化。结果表明:(1)在建立气候要素与经纬度、海拔高度等回归关系的同时,考虑坡度和坡向等微地形因子并结合OK法进行残差分析的I-AMMRR插值方法能够显著提高降水量的模拟精度,最适于干旱半干旱区域。(2)甘肃省近42a年均降水量呈东南向西北递减的分布规律,气候带相应地由湿润区过渡为半湿润区、半干旱区至干旱区。其中,干旱区面积最大,占全省面积的43%。(3)近42a来,除祁连山地、河西走廊中东部、北山山地部分地区外,甘肃省年均降水量均呈减少趋势,其中夏季呈减少、冬季呈增加、春秋季降水量变化趋势呈地域性分布。研究结果细化了甘肃省降水资源的分布状况,可为农业结构调整,发展特色农业、精细农业提供依据。
英文摘要	The basis of meteorological data of annual average precipitation and its trend from 1970 to 2011 in Gansu province was analyzed for spatial interpolation and cross validation, and the spatial temporal variation of precipitation was analyzed further by using methods of IDW, OK, CK, Micro-topographic Factors and Analytic Method Based on Multiple Regression and Residues (M AMMRR), improved M-AMMRR (I AMMRR). The results showed that I AMMRR, combining with climatic factor, longitude and latitude, altitude and micro terrain factor (slope, aspect) to interpolate based on OK, significantly improved simulation accuracy of precipitation, which was the most suitable interpolation method for arid and semi arid area. Annual average precipitation had a downward trend from southeast to northwest during last 42 years in Gansu province. Accordingly, the distribution of climatic zone varied from humid region, semi-humid region to semi-arid region and arid region. Meanwhile, the area of arid region was the largest,accounting for 43% of the total area. Apart from Qilian mountain, middle-eastern Hexi corridor and north mountains, annual precipitation in Gansu province decreased during last 42 years. Precipitation in summer showed a decreasing trend while increased in winter. Precipitation variation indicated zonal distribution in spring and autumn. The results detailed the distribution of the precipitation in Gansu province, which could provide the basis for adjustment of agricultural structure, the development of characteristic agriculture and precision agriculture.
中文关键词	降水量 ; 变化趋势 ; I AMMRR插值法 ; 气候分区
英文关键词	Precipitation Variation trend I AMMRR interpolation method Climatic division
语种	中文
国家	中国
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
WOS研究方向	Geology
CSCD记录号	CSCD:4907301
来源机构	甘肃农业大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/230545
作者单位	甘肃农业大学草业学院, 兰州, 甘肃 730070, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	王红霞,柳小妮,李纯斌,等. 甘肃省近42年降水量变化时空分布格局分析[J]. 甘肃农业大学,2013,34(4):384-389.
APA	王红霞,柳小妮,李纯斌,任正超,潘冬荣,&魏靖琼.(2013).甘肃省近42年降水量变化时空分布格局分析.中国农业气象,34(4),384-389.
MLA	王红霞,et al."甘肃省近42年降水量变化时空分布格局分析".中国农业气象 34.4(2013):384-389.